气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 337-345.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.013

• 温升1.5℃: 影响与应对专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

1.5℃温控目标下地球工程问题剖析和应对政策建议

陈迎1,辛源2,3   

  1. 1 中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京 100028;
    2 中国社会科学院研究生院,北京 102488;
    3 中国气象局发展研究中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-19 修回日期:2017-02-21 出版日期:2017-07-30 发布日期:2017-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 陈迎 E-mail:cy_cass@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    973项目“地球工程的综合影响评价和国际治理研究”课题

Implications of Geoengineering Under 1.5℃Target: Analysis and Policy Recommendations

Chen Ying1, Xin Yuan2, 3   

  1. 1 Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028, China
    2 Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
    3 Development and Research Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-01-19 Revised:2017-02-21 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30
  • Contact: Ying Chen E-mail:cy_cass@163.com

摘要:

《巴黎协定》引入了全球应对气候变化的1.5℃温控目标,但是没有就其实现路径做出清晰安排。实现1.5℃目标对全球减排提出更高要求,各国自主贡献目标距离该目标有较大差距,常规减排技术和政策也很难完成任务。在此背景下,国际上有关地球工程的讨论日渐升温。《巴黎协定》实际上已经包含了人工造林,碳捕获与封存/碳捕获与利用技术(CCS/CCUS),生物质能利用加CCS(BECCS)等负排放技术,这些都是地球工程范畴的碳移除技术(CDR),除此之外,更具争议性的太阳辐射管理(SRM)技术也引起更多关注。地球工程作为非常规技术选项,在1.5℃目标下的影响评估、技术选择、伦理学和国际治理等一系列问题的研究和探讨都十分必要。本文在分析和探讨上述问题的基础上,就中国应重视和加强地球工程研究与应对提出一些政策建议,指出要将地球工程纳入中国应对气候变化战略大框架,围绕1.5℃目标加强地球工程科学研究,并积极参与地球工程国际治理,合理发出中国声音。

关键词: 《巴黎协定》, 1.5℃目标, 地球工程

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement introduced a 1.5℃ target to control global temperature rising, but it didn’t make clear arrangements for feasible implementation pathways. Achieving 1.5℃ target sets up higher requirements on global emission reductions. Adding up NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) of all Parties is far from 1.5℃ target, while conventional emission reduction technologies and policies will also be difficult to fulfill the task. In this context, the discussion about geoengineering is heating up in the international area. The Paris Agreement in fact has already included afforestation, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS), negative emission technologies such as bio-energy with CCS (BECCS), and all of these are carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies that belong to geoengineering. In addition, solar radiation management (SRM) which is more controversial also attracts more attentions in recent years. Geoengineering as an unconventional technical option is definately necessary in a series of researches and discussions on the impacts assessment, technical options, ethics, international governance, etc. under 1.5℃ target. On the basis of analyzing and discussing above-mentioned issues, this paper proposes some policy suggestions, such as enhancing scientific issues and governance problems research in geoengineering field for China.

Key words: Paris Agreement, 1.5℃ target, geoengineering

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