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气候变化研究进展
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温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据
张滨,吕洁华
东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨 150040
EKC inspection and dynamic impact of emissions reduction paths for greenhouse gas emissions——based on statistical data in Heilongjiang province
ZHANG Bin, LYU Jie-Hua
College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
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摘要 基于2001—2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。
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关键词:  环境库兹涅茨曲线  减排路径  单位GDP温室气体排放  脉冲响应函数    
Abstract: The EKC relationship between GDP and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions shows an inverted U-shape based on the GHG emissions accounting data in Heilongjiang province from 2001 to 2015, and the curve is expected to reach inflection point in 2019. The results of average annual emission reduction of 4 paths by partial least-squares regression model are as follows: the reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP, the adjustment of economic structure, the growth of per capita GDP, the change of trade structure. The dynamic impact effects for corresponding impulse response functions are fluctuating emission increase, convergent emission reduction, divergent emission reduction, and transformational emission effect. The paths order of promoting GHG emission reduction in Heilongjiang province is to control fossil energy consumption, optimize economic structure, develop low-carbon economy and adjust trade structure.
Key words:  EKC    Emissions reduction paths    Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP    Impulse response function
收稿日期:  2018-09-03      修回日期:  2018-10-15           出版日期:  2019-01-07      发布日期:  2019-01-07     
ZTFLH:  X323  
基金资助: 黑龙江省自然基金面上项目;中国清洁能源发展机制基金赠款项目
通讯作者:  张滨   
引用本文:    
张滨 吕洁华. 温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.119.
ZHANG Bin, LYU Jie-Hua. EKC inspection and dynamic impact of emissions reduction paths for greenhouse gas emissions——based on statistical data in Heilongjiang province. Climate Change Research, 0, (): 0-0.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.119
[1] 刘俊伶,孙一赫,王克,邹骥,孔英. 中国交通部门中长期低碳发展路径研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 513-521.
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