《巴黎协定》市场机制中的相应调整方法

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了避免减排效益的双重计算，《巴黎协定》第6条下的市场机制，包括第6.2条的合作方法和第6.4条机制均要求对市场机制参与方的排放量进行相应调整（corresponding adjustment)。格拉斯哥气候大会通过了关于第6条机制的实施细则，包括相应调整的具体要求。针对提出了单年度国家自主贡献（NDC）减排目标的缔约方，实施细则提供了两种相应调整方法：平均法和排放轨迹法。平均法在操作上更加简洁方便，允许缔约方以更灵活的排放路径实现NDC目标；而排放轨迹法降低了缔约方能否实现NDC目标的不确定性，且受碳排放权交易市场（ETS）中配额存储和借贷政策的影响较小。对我国NDC减排目标、未来可能的排放路径等的分析表明，平均法更适合我国。建议主管部门从如下几个方面着手，为我国参与第6条市场机制做好相应准备工作：量化NDC减排目标、追踪NDC进展、建立追踪“国际转让的减排成果”（ITMOs）交易和报告的系统等。

关键词: 巴黎协定, 市场机制, 相应调整

Abstract:

In order to avoid double counting of emission reduction benefits, the market mechanisms established in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, including the cooperation approaches referred to in Article 6.2 and the Article 6.4 mechanism, require corresponding adjustment of the emissions of participating Parties. The Glasgow Climate Change Conference adopted guidance for the implementation of the Article 6 mechanisms, including specific requirements for corresponding adjustment. For participating Parties that have a single-year Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the guidance provides two corresponding adjustment methods: the averaging approach and multi-year emissions trajectory approach. The averaging method is more concise and convenient in operation, allowing the Parties to achieve their NDC goal with a more flexible emissions path, while the multi-year emissions trajectory approach reduces the uncertainty in achieving NDC goal, and is less affected by the allowance banking and borrowing rules of emissions trading system (ETS). The analysis of China’s NDC target and possible future emission paths shows that the averaging method is more suitable for China. It is suggested that preparations should be carried out for China’s participation in the market mechanisms under Article 6 from the following aspects: quantifying NDC mitigation target, tracking NDC progress, and establishing a system for tracking and reporting Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) transactions.

Key words: Paris Agreement, Market mechanisms, Corresponding adjustment

银朔, 段茂盛. 《巴黎协定》市场机制中的相应调整方法[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 508-519.

YIN Shuo, DUAN Mao-Sheng. Corresponding adjustment methods in the market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 508-519.

图/表 4

表1 不同排放路径2030年目标

Table 1 Targets in 2030 for different emission paths

图1 2030年 ITMOs出售（+）/购买（-）量

Fig. 1 ITMOs sales (+)/purchases (-) in 2030

表2 不确定性因素分布

Table 2 Distribution of uncertainty factors

图2 ITMOs净交易量与排放量的核密度估计图

Fig. 2 Kernel density estimation chart of ITMOs net trading volume and emissions

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