国家自主贡献更新进展、特征及其对全球气候治理的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.185

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国家自主贡献（NDC）是《巴黎协定》最核心的制度,体现了全球气候治理模式从“自上而下”到“自下而上”的变迁。文中对截至2021年7月1日92个缔约方通报或更新的NDC进行了比较分析,识别出7种更新方式：提高量化减排目标数字、调整减排目标类型和覆盖范围、增加适应目标和政策、增加2050年减排愿景、主动适用NDC信息和核算导则、报告实施进展、补充落实目标的政策措施。研究发现部分国家NDC更新存在调高目标数字但实际减排力度倒退、以远期承诺规避近期力度提升和落实进展、实施NDC的资金需求巨大但无法保障等问题。文中认为,全球气候治理应尊重并支持各国多样的NDC更新方式,巩固“自下而上”安排,还应树立全面的力度观,倡导目标力度、实施力度和保障力度并重。

关键词: 《巴黎协定》, 国家自主贡献（NDC）, 履约, 力度, 全球气候治理

Abstract:

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) is the core central arrangement of Paris Agreement, which reflects the evolution of global climate governance mode from “top-down” to “bottom-up”. 92 communicated or updated NDC by July 1, 2021 were analyzed with comparing method in this research. Seven types of updating patterns were found: increasing the values of quantitative mitigation targets, adjusting the types and coverage of mitigation targets, adding adaptive goals and policies strategy, increasing the 2050 carbon-neutral vision, proactively applying NDC information and accounting guidance, reporting the progress of NDC implementation, supplementing the policy and measures for achieving the goals. It is found that the updated NDCs in some countries have showed some problems that may affect the effectiveness of global climate governance, including increasing the target number but the actual mitigation efforts is regressing, proposing the long-term target to avoid the enhancement of the near-future ambition for target and implementation, and insufficient financial support for NDC implementation, etc. Global climate governance should respect different updating patterns of NDC, to consolidate the “bottom-up" arrangement of the Paris Agreement, and establish a comprehensive and reasonable “ambition view” with enhancing ambition not only on the target, but also on implementation and support.

Key words: Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), Implementation of treaty, Level of ambition, Global climate governance

樊星, 高翔. 国家自主贡献更新进展、特征及其对全球气候治理的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 230-239.

FAN Xing, GAO Xiang. Updates of Nationally Determined Contributions:progress, characteristics and impacts on global climate governance[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 230-239.

图/表 3

图1 截至2021年7月1日92个缔约方选择的不同更新NDC方式注：同一缔约方可能选择多种更新方式。数据来源为《公约》秘书处临时登记簿各国更新的NDC文件。

Fig. 1 Amount of the Parties who choose different update patterns by July 1st, 2021

表1 主要缔约方在通报或更新的NDC中提出的2050年目标相关表述

Table 1 The language of 2050 target in the communicated or updated NDCs from the main Parties

图2 主要发达国家（集团）2020年减排目标完成进展注：数据来源为各国2021年向《公约》秘书处提交的国家温室气体清单。

Fig. 2 The progression on achieving 2020 mitigation target of the main Parties (Groups)

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