海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力和效益分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.285

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于建立的需求-排放-成本模型，结合情景分析，评估海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力与成本。研究表明，海南省房间空调器行业在氢氟碳化物（HFCs）制冷剂转型的同时推进能效提升，既可大幅度减少直接和间接排放，实现房间空调制冷剂近零排放，同时通过节电获得相对收益。在基加利修正案能效情景与加速转型能效情景中，2021—2060年海南省房间空调器行业可分别累计减排50~62 Mt CO₂-eq和77~94 Mt CO₂-eq，直接减排量占比分别约为30%和55%，平均减排成本分别为-219.3~-219.1元/t和-115.6~-112.8元/t。

关键词: 海南省, 房间空调器, 碳中和, 协同减排

Abstract:

Based on the established demand-emissions-cost model, combined with scenario analysis, this paper presents an assessment of the potential and cost of synergistic GHG mitigation in the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province. The results show that the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province can significantly reduce both direct and indirect emissions and achieve near-zero emissions by promoting energy efficiency improvements while converting HFCs refrigerants, as well as gain relative benefits through electricity saving. In the Kigali energy efficiency scenario and accelerated transformation energy efficiency scenario, the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province will achieve cumulative emission reductions of 50-62 Mt CO₂-eq and 77-94 Mt CO₂-eq from 2021 to 2060, with direct emission reductions accounting for about 30% and 55%, and average emission reduction costs of CNY -219.3 to -219.1/t and CNY -115.6 to -112.8/t, respectively.

Key words: Hainan province, Room air conditioners, Carbon neutral, Synergistic mitigation

姜鹏南, 窦艳伟, 白富丽, 李一希, 赵星辰, 张旭, 陈子薇, 胡建信. 海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力和效益分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 496-507.

JIANG Peng-Nan, DOU Yan-Wei, BAI Fu-Li, LI Yi-Xi, ZHAO Xing-Chen, ZHANG Xu, CHEN Zi-Wei, HU Jian-Xin. Greenhouse gases synergistic mitigation potential and benefits of room air conditioner sector in Hainan province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 496-507.

图/表 10

图1 研究框架

Fig. 1 Research frame

表1 情景描述

Table 1 Scenarios description

表2 研究参数、来源和方法

Table 2 Research parameters, sources and related methods

图2 海南省房间空调器保有量历史数据（2000—2020年）与预测情况（2021—2060年）

Fig. 2 Room air conditioner stocks historical data (2000-2020) and projections (2021-2060) in Hainan province

图3 2020—2060年海南省各情景下房间空调器直接排放

Fig. 3 Direct emissions of room air conditioners under three scenario in Hainan province during 2020-2060

图4 2020—2060年海南省各情景下房间空调器分制冷剂排放

Fig. 4 Sub-refrigerant emissions of room air conditioners under three scenarios in Hainan province during 2020-2060

图5 2020—2060年海南省基线与协同减排情景下房间空调器耗电量(a)与间接排放量(b)

Fig. 5 Electricity consumption (a) and indirect emissions (b) of room air conditioners under baseline and synergistic mitigation scenarios in Hainan province during 2020-2060

图6 2020—2060年海南省各情景下房间空调器总排放量

Fig. 6 Total emissions of room air conditioners under three scenario in Hainan province during 2020-2060

图7 2020年海南省房间空调器转型至HFC-32或HC-290时能效提升的平均减排成本

Fig. 7 Average abatement cost of energy efficiency improvement when converting room air conditioners to HFC-32 or HC-290 in Hainan province in 2020

图8 2021—2060年KAE与ATE情景下的逐年平均减排成本

Fig. 8 Year-to-year average abatement costs under KAE and ATE scenarios during 2021-2060

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