中国碳中和目标内涵与实现路径综述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.058

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳中和已成为引领中国中长期可持续发展的纲领性目标。通过对已有研究成果的梳理与评述,从目标内涵和实现路径两个方面探讨了“碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革”这一重要命题。中国碳中和目标与全球温控2℃/1.5℃目标内涵一致,需要以阶段性减排成效为基础制定中期行动方案来逐步实现长期减排目标。作为实现碳中和目标的两个主要路径,高比例非化石能源代表的“零碳图景”与化石能源脱碳化代表的“净零图景”之间有着互补与冲突并存的矛盾关系,这需要在政府顶层设计、行业协作创新和企业实践推广的联合支持下,借助“电力、碳、金融”等市场化工具的强外部作用力,加强对切实可行、经济可负担的零碳、低碳和脱碳技术的探索创新与协同应用,最大可能地降低转型难度与减排代价。就碳中和技术路径而言,能效技术、新能源和数字化贯穿碳中和的全过程,近期以强化储能和需求响应等灵活性资源的应用及加快终端电气化进程为主,中期要加强能源互联、推动低碳材料和负排放技术的示范应用,远期评估现实可行且成本可负担的全面碳中和方案,确保碳中和转型重塑的安全经济可靠。

关键词: 碳中和, 目标内涵, 实现路径, 综述

Abstract:

China's carbon neutrality, aligned with the global 2℃/1.5℃ target, has become a programmatic target to guide China's medium and long-term sustainable development. Through the literature review, the discussion about the important proposition that “carbon neutrality is a broad and profound systematic socio-economic revolution” is presented from two aspects of target connotation interpretation and feasible pathway description. Indeed, China's carbon neutrality aims to net-zero GHG emissions. China should formulate a medium-term action plan based on the phased emission reduction performance to gradually achieve the long-term carbon neutral. And China needs to focus on the alternative transition directions of “zero carbon landscape” dominated by high-share non-fossil energy and “net zero landscape” represented by decarbonization of fossil energy, which likely creates a contradictory picture. Collaborative carbon neutral solutions necessitates the joint support of top-level design from government, cooperation among industries and enterprise practice, with the strong external force of market-oriented tools such as “power market, carbon market, finance market”, to strengthen the collaborative exploration, innovation and application of feasible and affordable zero-carbon, low-carbon and decarbonization technologies, which can relief the transition barriers and the cost of emission reduction as much as possible. In terms of carbon neutralization technology path, energy efficiency technologies, new energy and digitization will run through the process of carbon neutralization. In the short term, the critical task is to strengthen the application of flexible resources such as energy storage and demand response and boost the terminal electrification. In the medium term, it is necessary to strengthen energy interconnection and promote the demonstration application of low-carbon materials and negative emission technologies. And in the long term, it is necessary to evaluate a practical and affordable comprehensive carbon neutralization method to ensure the safety, low-cost and reliability of carbon neutral transition.

Key words: Carbon neutrality, Target connotation, Feasible paths, Review

张浩楠, 申融容, 张兴平, 康俊杰, 袁家海. 中国碳中和目标内涵与实现路径综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 240-252.

ZHANG Hao-Nan, SHEN Rong-Rong, ZHANG Xing-Ping, KANG Jun-Jie, YUAN Jia-Hai. Implications and pathways of China's carbon neutrality: a review[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 240-252.

图/表 4

表1 2014年中国温室气体排放量

Table 1 China's greenhouse gas emissions inventory in 2014亿t CO2当量

图1 广义与狭义碳中和目标CO2减排差异

Fig. 1 Difference of CO2 emissions between broad and narrow sense of carbon neutrality

图2 中国碳中和转型体系架构

Fig. 2 Transition framework of China's carbon neutrality

图3 可行的碳中和图景

Fig. 3 Feasible pathways for carbon neutrality

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