碳中和目标下全球交通能源转型路径

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.184

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

《巴黎协定》提出将21世纪末全球温升控制在2℃以内并努力控制在1.5℃以内。截至2021年11月，超过140个国家已经或考虑提出碳中和目标，覆盖全球90%的排放，充分体现了新气候治理体系下各国深度减排的雄心。交通部门作为重要的终端能源消费部门，在各地区实现碳中和目标的路径中发挥重要作用。本文使用自主构建的全球31区能源系统模型GTIMES 2.0对碳中和目标下交通能源转型路径进行模拟。结果表明：碳中和目标下全球交通能源系统将发生深刻变革，交通碳排放将于2030年达到峰值85亿t，2050年降至27亿t，同时交通用能中超过60%将转换为电力和氢能。道路运输未来仍是交通部门最大的碳排放源，航空运输由于需求增长较快、减排难度较大，未来碳排放占比会明显上升。各国交通减排路径存在差异，全球31个区域中包括欧盟、英国、日本、韩国等11个区域交通碳排放在2018年已经达峰，中国、“一带一路”沿线区域、印度等将于2030年或之后达峰。2050年，23个区域交通碳排放相对2018年下降50%以上，但印度相对2018年仍然明显上升。

关键词: 能源系统模型, 能源转型, 碳中和, 交通低碳发展

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement proposed to control the global temperature rise within 2℃ at the end of the 21st century and strive to control it within 1.5℃. To this end, as of November 2021, more than 140 countries had proposed or were considering to propose carbon neutrality targets, covering 90% of global emissions. This fully reflects the ambition of these countries to reduce emissions in depth under the new climate governance system. As an important final energy consumption sector, the transportation sector plays an important role for all regions towards carbon neutrality targets. In this paper, the Global Multi-regional Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality Analysis Model (GTIMES 2.0), which was developed and used to explore the transition pathways of the transportation energy towards carbon neutrality. Results show that carbon neutrality requires profound transitions in the global transportation energy system. Transportation carbon emissions will peak at 8.5 billion t in 2030 and drop to 2.7 billion t in 2050. Meanwhile, electricity and hydrogen will account for more than 60% of transportation energy in 2050. The road transportation will still be the biggest carbon emissions source in the future and the proportion of aviation will increase significantly because of the rapid growth of demands and the difficulty of decarbonization. Transportation carbon emissions in 11 of the 31 regions/countries, including European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, Korea etc., have already peaked in 2018, while China, the “the Belt and Road” countries, India, etc., will peak around or after 2030. In 2050, the transportation carbon emissions of 23 regions/countries will decrease by more than 50% compared with 2018 with Brazil and Japan approaching net zero, while India even higher than 2018.

Key words: Energy system model, Energy transition, Carbon neutrality, Low-carbon transportation development

李丹阳, 陈文颖. 碳中和目标下全球交通能源转型路径[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 203-212.

LI Dan-Yang, CHEN Wen-Ying. Global transportation energy transition pathways towards carbon neutrality[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(2): 203-212.

图/表 9

表1 GTIMES 2.0模型区域代码

Table 1 Codes of regions in GTIMES 2.0

表2 GTIMES 2.0模型交通能源技术类型

Table 2 Types of transportation energy technologies in GTIMES 2.0

表3 增强NDC-碳中和情景下各区域2030年和2050年能源碳排放目标亿t CO2

Table 3 Energy related carbon emissions targets of each region in NDC?Zero scenario in 2030 and 2050

图1 碳中和目标下全球交通能源消费与碳排放

Fig. 1 Global transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions towards carbon neutrally targets

图2 碳中和目标下2050年各区域交通能源消费中电力和氢能占比

Fig. 2 Electricity and hydrogen proportion of transportation energy consumption towards carbon neutrally targets in each region

图3 碳中和目标下各区域峰值和2050年交通碳排放相对2018年变化比例

Fig. 3 Relative changes of peak and 2050 transportation carbon emissions in 2018 for each region towards carbon neutrally targets

图4 碳中和目标下部分区域分模式交通能源消费

Fig. 4 Transportation energy consumption by modes in some regions towards carbon neutrally targets

图5 碳中和目标下部分区域分燃料交通能源消费

Fig. 5 Transportation energy consumption by fuels in some regions towards carbon neutrally targets

图6 碳中和目标下部分区域分模式交通碳排放

Fig. 6 Transportation carbon emissions by modes in some regions towards carbon neutrally targets

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