综合评估模型在全球应对气候变化中的角色和未来研究转型

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合评估模型（IAM）在全球和各国应对气候变化进程中起到了重要作用，特别是在IPCC的所有评估报告中扮演重要角色，支持了全球减排目标的评估和制定进程。IAM本身的发展也经历了从高集成度模型到大规模复杂模型阶段。随着承诺碳中和目标的国家CO₂排放已经占据全球CO₂排放的主要部分，IAM的研究方向也需要进行重大的调整，从原有的主要进行升温目标的情景和路径评估，进入到更细致的行业部门、技术，以及相关经济和生态环境因素的研究，以支持实现碳中和目标下的能源转型、经济转型的路径和政策措施的认知和制定进程。IAM研究的转型需要尽快推进，并需要更多的学术研究团体参与其中。

关键词: 气候变化, 减排, 综合评估模型（IAM）, 决策支持

Abstract:

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have played a significant role in the global and national processes of addressing climate change, especially in all the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), supporting the evaluation and formulation of global emission reduction targets. The development of IAMs themselves has gone through stages from highly synthesized models to large-scale complex models. With the CO₂ emissions of countries committed to carbon neutrality accounting for the majority of global CO₂ emissions, the research direction of IAMs also needs to undergo major adjustments, shifting from the original focus on assessing scenarios and pathways for temperature targets to more detailed studies of economic sectors, technologies, and related economic and ecological environmental factors, in order to support the understanding and formulation of the paths and policy measures for energy and economic transitions under the goal of carbon neutrality. The transition of IAMs research needs to be advanced as soon as possible and requires the participation of more academic research groups.

Key words: Climate change, Mitigation, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Policy making

姜克隽. 综合评估模型在全球应对气候变化中的角色和未来研究转型[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(4): 461-468.

JIANG Ke-Jun. Role of Integrated Assessment Model in global response to climate change and its future research transition[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 461-468.

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