Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 415-423.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.004

• Disaster Responses to Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change

XU Li1,3(), LI Qian1,3, WANG Ying1,2,3, HUANG Jing-Ling1,3, XU Ying-Jun1,2,3()   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education & Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2020-01-03 Revised:2020-04-19 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-05
  • Contact: XU Ying-Jun;


Based on the 0.5°×0.5° grid daily precipitation datasets and six climate model simulation results of CMIP5, taking the 2010 Zhouqu flash flood and debris flow disaster as the study case, the precipitation return period of this disaster was estimated, and the future precipitation at the same return period was inferred. Then, using the HEC-HMS and FLO-2D models, the mudflow deposition areas and total sediment amount under the future precipitation were simulated, and then the variation of the debris flow hazards was presented. The results show that the precipitation return period in the 2010 Zhouqu debris flow disaster is 1500 years, and the estimated future precipitation for the same return period is 113.7 mm. Under the same fortification, this precipitation will cause the debris flow deposition area in Zhouqu county town to reach 173% of that in 2010 Zhouqu debris flow, and the total amount of sediment will increase by 148%. In addition, the increased area of the debris flow is mainly located in the densely-populated area of Zhouqu county town in 2010. It can be said that the policy of relocating more than half of the residents in Zhouqu county town during the 2010 post-disaster reconstruction, is conducive to preventing the adverse effects of increased hazard of debris flow in the context of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Return period, Debris flow, Zhouqu

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