Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 0.5°×0.5° grid daily precipitation datasets and six climate model simulation results of CMIP5, taking the 2010 Zhouqu flash flood and debris flow disaster as the study case, the precipitation return period of this disaster was estimated, and the future precipitation at the same return period was inferred. Then, using the HEC-HMS and FLO-2D models, the mudflow deposition areas and total sediment amount under the future precipitation were simulated, and then the variation of the debris flow hazards was presented. The results show that the precipitation return period in the 2010 Zhouqu debris flow disaster is 1500 years, and the estimated future precipitation for the same return period is 113.7 mm. Under the same fortification, this precipitation will cause the debris flow deposition area in Zhouqu county town to reach 173% of that in 2010 Zhouqu debris flow, and the total amount of sediment will increase by 148%. In addition, the increased area of the debris flow is mainly located in the densely-populated area of Zhouqu county town in 2010. It can be said that the policy of relocating more than half of the residents in Zhouqu county town during the 2010 post-disaster reconstruction, is conducive to preventing the adverse effects of increased hazard of debris flow in the context of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Return period, Debris flow, Zhouqu

XU Li, LI Qian, WANG Ying, HUANG Jing-Ling, XU Ying-Jun. Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 415-423.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area

Table 1 Information of CMIP5 climate models

Fig. 2 Hourly and cumulative rainfall during the disaster at Zhouqu and Dongshan station

Fig. 3 Structure and principle of the HEC-HMS

Fig. 4 Flowchart of the FLO-2D model on mudflow simulation

Fig. 5 Schematic diagram of simulated and observed deposition areas in calculation of evaluation factor (Ω)

Fig. 6 The series of annual maximum daily rainfall from 1950 to 2010 in the study area (a) and the cumulative probability of extreme precipitation estimated by Gumbel model (b)

Table 2 Rainfall amount at different return periods based on historical datasets

Table 3 Simulated precipitation in a return period of 1500 years in the context of climate change

Fig. 7 Simulated precipitation processes in extreme cases of climate change

Fig. 8 Simulation results of mudflow deposition area in Zhouqu county town

References 33

[1]	Goswami B N, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, et al. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment[J]. Science, 2006,314(5804):1442-1445 doi: 10.1126/science.1132027 URL pmid: 17138899
[2]	Allan R P, Soden B J. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes[J]. Science, 2008,321(5895):1481-1484 doi: 10.1126/science.1160787 URL pmid: 18687921
[3]	IPCC. Special report on global warming of 1.5℃[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018
[4]	国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室. 水利部印发全国山洪灾害防治项目2017—2020年实施方案[Z/OL]. 中华人民共和国水利部, 2017 [2019-11-02]. http://www.mwr.gov.cn/xw/slyw/201711/t20171127_1015909.html.
	The Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters. MWR issues the national flood disaster prevention project implementation plan, 2017-2020 [Z/OL]. Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China, 2017 [2019-11-02]. http://www.mwr.gov.cn/xw/slyw/201711/t20171127_1015909.html (in Chinese)
[5]	Ainuddin S, Routray J K, Ainuddin S, et al. People's risk perception in earthquake prone Quetta city of Baluchistan[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2014,7:165-175
[6]	陈活泼. CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J]. 科学通报, 2013,58(8):743-752.
	Chen H P. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013,58(8):743-752 (in Chinese)
[7]	王艳君, 刘俸霞, 翟建青, 等. 全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征[J]. 气象科学, 2019,39(4):540-547.
	Wang Y J, Liu F X, Zhai J Q, et al. Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin under the global warming 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2019,39(4):540-547 (in Chinese)
[8]	王俊超, 彭涛, 王清. 乌江流域极端降水时空分布特征及重现期分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019,38(3):267-275.
	Wang J C, Peng T, Wang Q. Spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation in the Wujiang River valley and reproducibility analysis[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2019,38(3):267-275 (in Chinese)
[9]	Farinosi F, Arias M E, Lee E, et al. Future climate and land use change impacts on river flows in the Tapajos basin in the Brazilian Amazon[J]. Earth Future, 2019,7(8):993-1017
[10]	王书霞, 张利平, 李意, 等. 气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019,15(1):23-32.
	Wang S X, Zhang L P, Li Y, et al. Extreme flood in the Lancang River basin under climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019,15(1):23-32 (in Chinese)
[11]	李帅, 魏虹, 刘媛, 等. 气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟[J]. 生态学报, 2017,37(4):1252-1260.
	Li S, Wei H, Liu Y, et al. Runoff prediction for Ningxia Qingshui River basin under scenarios of climate and land use changes[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017,37(4):1252-1260 (in Chinese)
[12]	路阳. 基于临界雨量指标的小流域山洪灾害预警研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2016.
	Lu Y. A flash flood disaster warning in small watershed based on the critical rainfall[D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2016 (in Chinese)
[13]	赵煜飞, 朱江. 近50年中国降水格点日值数据集精度及评估[J]. 高原气象, 2015,34(1):50-58.
	Zhao Y F, Zhu J. Assessing quality of grid daily precipitation datasets in China in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2015,34(1):50-58 (in Chinese)
[14]	王铭昊, 李焕连, 孙小婷. 中国6个CMIP5模式对全球降水年际-年代际变率模拟的定量评估[J]. 气象, 2018,44(5):634-644.
	Wang M H, Li H L, Sun X T. Quantitative evaluation on the interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability simulated by six CMIP5 models of China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2018,44(5):634-644 (in Chinese)
[15]	周梦子, 周广胜, 吕晓敏, 等. 1.5和2℃升温阈值下中国温度和降水变化的预估[J]. 气象学报, 2019,77(4):728-744.
	Zhou M Z, Zhou G S, Lü X M, et al. Projection of temperature and precipitation changes over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2℃[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2019,77(4):728-744 (in Chinese)
[16]	Tang C, Rengers N, van Asch T W J, et al. Triggering conditions and depositional characteristics of a disastrous debris flow event in Zhouqu city, Gansu province, northwestern China[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2011,11(11):2903-2912
[17]	刘纪远. 中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M]. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1996.
	Liu J Y. Macro-scale survey and dynamic study of natural resources and environment of China by remote sensing [M]. Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 1996 (in Chinese)
[18]	Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H, et al. Global agro-ecological zones assessment for agriculture (GAEZ 2008): IIASA[C]. Rome, Italy, 2008
[19]	Xiao H, Luo Z, Niu Q, et al. The 2010 Zhouqu mudflow disaster: possible causes, human contributions, and lessons learned[J]. Natural Hazards, 2013,67(2):611-625
[20]	马东涛. 舟曲“8·8”特大泥石流灾害治理之我见[J]. 山地学报, 2010 (5):635-640.
	Ma D T. Some suggestions on controlling catastrophic debris flows on Aug. 8th, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2010 (5):635-640 (in Chinese)
[21]	铁永波, 胡凯衡. 基于遥感解译的典型低频泥石流形成机制研究: 以四川省宁南县矮子沟泥石流为例[J]. 灾害学, 2014,29(3):77-80.
	Tie Y B, Hu K H. Formation of typical low-frequency debris flow process based on remote sensing data: take Aizi debris flow in Ningnan, Sichuan province as an example[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014,29(3):77-80 (in Chinese)
[22]	赵煜飞, 朱江, 许艳. 近50 a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J]. 气象科学, 2014,34(4):414-420.
	Zhao Y F, Zhu J, Xu Y. Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitation datasets in China for recent 50 years[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2014,34(4):414-420 (in Chinese)
[23]	赵虹. 中国陆地高空间分辨率月气温和降水格点数据集的修正与对比[D]. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2015.
	Zhao H. High spatial resolution of monthly air temperature and precipitation gridded dataset revision and comparisons[D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2015 (in Chinese)
[24]	Mishra B K, Emam A R, Masago Y, et al. Assessment of future flood inundations under climate and land use change scenarios in the Ciliwung River basin, Jakarta[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2018,112:S1105-S1115
[25]	Chang T K, Tailei A, Alaghmand S, et al. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,545:100-108
[26]	Deshmukh D S, Chaube U C, Hailu A E, et al. Estimation and comparison of curve numbers based on dynamic land use land cover change, observed rainfall-runoff data and land slope[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013,492:89-101
[27]	Chang C, Chung M, Yang S, et al. A case study for the application of an operational two-dimensional real-time flooding forecasting system and smart water level gauges on roads in Tainan city, Taiwan[J]. Water, 2018,10(5):574
[28]	陈瑜彬, 杨文发, 许银山. 不同土壤含水量的动态临界雨量拟定方法研究[J]. 人民长江, 2015,46(12):21-26.
	Chen Y B, Yang W F, Xu Y S. Study of dynamic critical precipitation drafted method under different soil moisture content level[J]. Yangtze River, 2015,46(12):21-26 (in Chinese)
[29]	Brien J S. FLO-2D user manual [CP/OL]. 2009 [2019-11-01]. https://www.flo-2d.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/FLO-2D-Plugin-Users-Manual.pdf
[30]	Chang M, Tand C, van Asch T W J, et al. Hazard assessment of debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, South West China[J]. Landslides, 2017,14(5):1783-1792
[31]	Han Z, Li Y, Huang J, et al. Numerical simulation for run-out extent of debris flows using an improved cellular automaton model[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2017,76(3):961-974
[32]	夏军, 石卫, 张利平, 等. 气候变化对防洪安全影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J]. 四川大学学报: 工程科学版, 2016,48(2):7-13.
	Xia J, Shi W, Zhang L P, et al. Opportunity and challenge of the climate change impact on flood protection[J]. Journal of Sichuan University: Engineering Science Edition, 2016,48(2):7-13 (in Chinese)
[33]	中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 国务院关于印发舟曲灾后恢复重建总体规划的通知: 国发[2010] 38号[A/OL]. 2010 [2019-11-01]. http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2010/content_1745844.htm.
	The Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Circular of the State Council on printing and issuing the comprehensive planning for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction in Zhouqu: issue No.38 (2010) [A/OL]. 2010 [2019-11-01]. http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2010/content_1745844.htm (in Chinese)