Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (2): 128-137.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249

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National and Provincial Population Projected to 2100 Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China

Jiang Tong1, 2, Zhao Jing1 , Jing Cheng1, Cao Lige2, Wang Yanjun1, Sun Hemin1, 2, Wang Anqian3, 4, Huang Jinlong3, 4, Su Buda1, 2, 3, Wang Run5   

  1. 1 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    5 School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China

  • Received:2016-12-22 Revised:2017-02-02 Online:2017-03-30 Published:2017-03-30
  • Contact: Tong Jiang


This paper focused on the projection of national and provincial population in China, using Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Population parameters in the Model PDE were set up by using the 6th national census including fertility, mortality, migration and education in China. the populations of 31 provinces including autonomous regions and municipalities in China for 2011-2100 were projected according to present situation and Two-Child Policy. The results show that China’s population will raise up to 2035 and then decline until 2100 under five shared socioeconomic pathways. Under SSP3, which facing high climate change challenges, peak population shown in 2035 will be 1.43 billion. The minimum population will be found about 0.70 billion under SSP4. Under SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5, average life expectancy will be relatively high, and population aging will be serious. More than 60% of population under SSP1 and SSP5 account for higher educated population above university level. Under SSP2, the population at different ages will be similar numbers. More new-born population and adequate labor will be encouraged with a low education level under SSP3. By 2100, maximum numbers of population reaching 113 million will be found in the Guangxi province under SSP3. Except SSP3, population in the Guangdong province will have 129 million reaching to maximum numbers of population. A rapid population growth at provinces under SSP3 will attribute to high fertility, low economic level and high population outflow, comparing with other pathways .

Key words: climate change, population projection, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), national and provincial, China

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