ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
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  30 March 2017, Volume 13 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Study on the Spatial-Temporal Change Characteristics of Global CO2 Concentration Based on SCIAMACHY Retrievals   Collect
Zhao Mingwei, Li Chenchen, Zhang Xingying, Wang Chun, Jiang Ling, Sun Jinglu
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 95-102.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.152
Abstract ( 647 )   HTML (   PDF (2228KB) ( 1275 )  

Retrieval estimation based on satellite spectrum characteristics is the principle means to observe the global carbon dioxide concentration and analyze its spatial-temporal tendency today. However, only discrete carbon dioxide concentration data can be obtained limited to the observation condition and retrieval technique. So spatial interpolation method is needed to produce continuous carbon dioxide concentration in space. In this study, the XCO2 concentration data released by the SCIAMACHY research team was taken as the basic data, several classical interpolation methods (IDW, Kriging, and Spline) were compared in the XCO2 concentration interpolation, and the error statistical indicators (MAE, Max_AE, RMSE) showed that IDW was the optimal method for this research. Then, spatial distribution data of XCO2 concentration in the global continent from January 2003 to April 2012 were produced based on IDW, and its spatial-temporal tendency was also analyzed. The XCO2 concentration in global scale all showed an increased trend during this period, and on the average level of the global continent, the increase of XCO2 concentration was 17.43×10-6, the average increase rate of XCO2 was about 2×10-6 per year, and the rate of increase in the Northern Hemisphere was higher than that in the Southern Hemisphere.

Characteristics of Wet and Dry Seasons in Southwest China During 1961-2014   Collect
Jiazila?Baishan, Li Weijing, Sun Chenghu, Zuo Jinqing, Zhang Ruonan, Liu Jingpeng
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 103-116.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.041
Abstract ( 782 )   HTML (   PDF (6097KB) ( 562 )  

By utilizing daily precipitation dataset from 1961 to 2014 in China, the characteristics of wet and dry seasons in Southwest China were analyzed. The results indicated that the wet season started from the eastern and northwestern part of this region, and the dry season started from the Sichuan Basin, southern Guizhou. The climatological wet season was longer in the mid-east and south of Southwest China, and vice versa the dry season. The onset date and length of wet and dry seasons exhibited abrupt shift in the mid-1970s to the 1980s, and it is very significant that the length of wet (dry) season became shorter (longer). There were large differences in the spatial and temporal features of the precipitation between the wet and dry season. There was more precipitation in southeastern part than in northwestern area in wet season, and the decreasing trend was observed in eastern part while increasing trend in the western part. For the dry season, there was more precipitation in the eastern Southwest China than in the western part, the precipitation in Chongqing and Guizhou showed an increasing trend, while a decreasing trend was found in Sichuan. In the anomalous wet (dry) years of wet season, the onset date was earlier (later), the end date tended to be later (earlier), the length of wet season was longer (shorter). In the anomalous earlier (later) onset years of dry season, the length of dry season was longer (shorter), and more (less) precipitation was observed in the season. The main reason of the abnormalities of wet and dry seasons in Southwest China was that the East Asia atmospheric circulation anomalies were influenced by the Pacific and Indian SST anomalies.

Climatology of the Extreme Precipitation Events over Guangxi Province andIts Potential Responses to ENSO   Collect
Liang Ju, Liang Jun, Yong Yangyang
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 117-127.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.109
Abstract ( 867 )   HTML (   PDF (3860KB) ( 499 )  

The climatological distributions and the long-term trends in the extreme precipitation events were investigated over Guangxi province, China. The extreme precipitation events were diagnosed using the 0.25°×0.25° APHRODITE’s (Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) daily gridded precipitation from the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency. The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was used to identify the periodicities of the temporal variations in the different extreme precipitation events. A two-dimension Cross-Correlation Analysis (CCA) was performed to examine the lag-correlations between the Niño3.4 index from the CPC/NOAA and the different extreme precipitation indicators. Based on the lagged periods indicated by the CCA, the potential responses of the different extreme indicators to the different phases of ENSO were analyzed. The result shows a slight increasing trend in dry days (DD) and slight decreasing trends in heavy-rain days (HRD), consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) during 1951-2007. The FFT power spectrums of the different extreme precipitation indicators exhibit significant spectrum power with periods around 3-7 years, implying a potential association with ENSO. The CCA indicates a positive (negative) correlation between the wet (drought) events and ENSO with a lagged period around 6-18 months. The mean Niño3.4 index averaged during the 6-18 months, as indicated by the CCA, was used to identify the corresponding phases of ENSO for the extreme precipitation in each month. The potential responses in the El Niño phases relative to the La Niña phases show a general decrease (increase) in the DD (HRD) and CDD (CWD). However, these potential responses are not statistically significant in most of the region over Guangxi province. As shown by the NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis data, the responses of moist static stability, the lower-level difference of temperature and dew-point, and the mid-tropospheric barotropic moist potential vorticity tend to be unfavorable for the increase in extreme rainfall in the El Niño phases, which may limit statistical significance of the responses of the different extreme precipitation indicators.

National and Provincial Population Projected to 2100 Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China   Collect
Jiang Tong, Zhao Jing, Jing Cheng, Cao Lige, Wang Yanjun, Sun Hemin, Wang Anqian, Huang Jinlong, Su Buda, Wang Run
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 128-137.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249
Abstract ( 1677 )   HTML (   PDF (1430KB) ( 1373 )  

This paper focused on the projection of national and provincial population in China, using Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Population parameters in the Model PDE were set up by using the 6th national census including fertility, mortality, migration and education in China. the populations of 31 provinces including autonomous regions and municipalities in China for 2011-2100 were projected according to present situation and Two-Child Policy. The results show that China’s population will raise up to 2035 and then decline until 2100 under five shared socioeconomic pathways. Under SSP3, which facing high climate change challenges, peak population shown in 2035 will be 1.43 billion. The minimum population will be found about 0.70 billion under SSP4. Under SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5, average life expectancy will be relatively high, and population aging will be serious. More than 60% of population under SSP1 and SSP5 account for higher educated population above university level. Under SSP2, the population at different ages will be similar numbers. More new-born population and adequate labor will be encouraged with a low education level under SSP3. By 2100, maximum numbers of population reaching 113 million will be found in the Guangxi province under SSP3. Except SSP3, population in the Guangdong province will have 129 million reaching to maximum numbers of population. A rapid population growth at provinces under SSP3 will attribute to high fertility, low economic level and high population outflow, comparing with other pathways .

Summer Maize Net Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Henan Province in China During 2021-2050   Collect
Yan Yijun, Xu Jianxin, Xiao Heng
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 138-148.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.168
Abstract ( 820 )   HTML (   PDF (7794KB) ( 260 )  

Based on the observations at 17 typical stations and the monthly outputs of 25 CMIP5 models, the impact of climate change on summer maize net irrigation water requirement in Henan province in China during 2021-2050 was assessed. Firstly, the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the future period (2021-2050) under the RCP4.5 scenario were generated by using the quantile mapping method and the weather generator BCC/RCG-WG 3.0. Then the difference between the crop water requirement and the effective precipitation in growth stages (namely, the net irrigation water requirement, NIWR) was calculated and compared to the baseline period (1961-2000). The results show that in the whole growth period, annual mean temperature and precipitation could increase by 1.8℃ and 3.6%, respectively, which might lead to increases in both water requirement (5.1%) and effective precipitation (1.5%). The projected future NIWR is likely to increase by 5.6%. Due to the temperature increase and precipitation decrease in sowing-jointing stage, the NIWR could increase by 21.3%. In jointing-milk maturity stage, the increased effective precipitation (3.0%) is not enough to offset the increased crop water requirement (5.1%) derived from temperature increase, the NIWR could still increase by 3.4%. However, in milk maturity-maturity stage, the NIWR decreases by 1.4% with a more increase of 8.2% in effective precipitation and a less increase (7.4%) in water requirement. The NIWR could increase in every growth stage at Sanmenxia, Mengjin, Luanchuan and Xixia stations in the western and southwestern of study area.

Distributed Lag Effects in the Relationship Between Daily Mean Temperature and the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Jiayuguan City, China   Collect
Dong Jiyuan, Li Shixiong, Zhou Ji, Wang Shigong
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 149-156.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.111
Abstract ( 623 )   HTML (   PDF (1232KB) ( 401 )  

To investigate and analyze the lag effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan city, the daily incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the city during 2008—2013 was collected and the meteorological data over the same period was integrated, on the basis of which the distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the relevance between temperature and the incidence of bacillary dysentery and to analyze the possible influence of different temperatures and different lag days on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The results show that the incidence of bacillary dysentery was closely associated with meteorological factors, with the peak incidence happening between June and August. As indicated by the correlation analysis between the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors, the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan were correlated with air temperature, air pressure, and rainfall. J- and U-shaped relationships were found consistently between daily mean temperature and the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan, and temperature had an obvious lag effect on the daily incidence of bacillary dysentery, which occurred following exposure at the first day, the relative risk for female reached the highest at the 2-3 days, and the value for male becomes the largest at the 4-5 days. Hot effects were larger in females than those in males, and the hot effect increased with age. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and development of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan. The incidence of bacillary dysentery is affected by multiple meteorological factors, but the primary one is high temperature. The temperature has not a direct effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but an indirect influence in different populations through the impacts of various aspects of the incidence of bacterial dysentery (residents living habits, communication channels and the habitus of the susceptible population).

Research on the Calculation of Trade Implied Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Influence Factors in Hebei Province   Collect
Zheng Linchang, Qi Meng, Fu Jiafeng, Zhao Danyang
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 157-164.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.126
Abstract ( 610 )   HTML (   PDF (992KB) ( 324 )  

An argument for the responsibility of national emission reduction in response to global climate change occurs, and it is needed to understand the carbon dioxide emissions from the point of view of production and consumption. The sharing of emission reduction responsibility in a country should also be realized from two aspects of production and consumption. Therefore, the paper uses the input-output method and the EEBT model to account for the carbon emissions in Hebei province, and find that the carbon dioxide emissions of production type are much more than that of consumption type, among which the carbon dioxide emissions caused by domestic outflow/inflow are more. Using the SDA model to analyze the influence factors of the change of implied carbon dioxide emission, it’s found that the change in the industry carbon emission intensity has positive influence on the hidden carbon dioxide emissions, and the technical and economic relations between the national economic sectors has negative influence on the hidden carbon dioxide emissions. For that reason, Hebei province should focus on the use of technical means to reduce the intensity of the industry carbon emissions, and screen the critical sectors that trigger the increase of hidden carbon dioxide emission to manage primarily.

HFCs Controlling Policies and Regulations of Developed Countries and Inspirations to China   Collect
Jiang Hanyu, Zhang Zhaoyang, Bie Pengju, Hu Jianxin
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 165-171.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.113
Abstract ( 759 )   HTML (   PDF (856KB) ( 497 )  

As substitutes of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) which are controlled under the Montreal Protocol, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have become a focus globally in recent years for their high global warming potential (GWP). Nowadays, some developed countries have established policies and regulations to control the production, consumption and emission of HFCs. The F-Gas Regulation of the European Union takes total-amount-control of HFCs by quota management, while Significant New Alternatives Policy Program in the U.S. phases out HFCs by altering acceptable substitutes. By analyzing and comparing the differences and similarities of policies and regulations in developed countries, it’s essential for China to legalize HFCs control and to phase down HFCs through full-lifecycle management under the total-amount-control principle.

A Study on the Willingness to Pay for Heatwaves Between Different Groups and Its Influence Factors: A Case of Fuzhou   Collect
Wang Yi, Liu Guanqiu, Qi Xi, Pan Danlin, Qi Xinhua
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 172-180.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.134
Abstract ( 662 )   HTML (   PDF (1102KB) ( 338 )  

Fuzhou city was deliberately chosen as the study area because of prominent heatwaves. Face-to-face interviews were conducted by means of the simple random sampling method, and 962 valid questionnaires were obtained. The depth interviews for some samples were also conducted, and the questionnaires covered some contents: social economy, the willingness to pay (WTP), its influence factors of heatwaves, etc. Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) and the modified Spike model were used to explore the differences between local residents and floating population on the WTP and its influencing factors. The results showed that: 1) Totally, the willingness payment of local residents and floating population for heatwaves is high, and the former is higher than the latter. 2) The willingness payment of local residents is 68.78 RMB per month, and that of floating population is 46.78 RMB per month. Obviously, there are differences between them. 3) The influencing factors of the WTP for heat waves include the type of residents, gender, education level, occupation, the time that stay in Fuzhou and the economic capacity. The differences of the WTP and the amount of payment for heatwaves between the local residents and the floating population and its influence factors will provide references for Fuzhou and other regions with similar weather to make relevant policies.

Will Major Abrupt Changes in Climate Occur?—Commentary on “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises”   Collect
Ren Guoyu
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 181-184.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.032
Abstract ( 636 )   HTML (   PDF (546KB) ( 1887 )  
Discussion on Development of Voluntary Emission Reduction Projects in Oil and Gas Pipeline Enterprises   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2017, 13 (2): 185-188.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.238
Abstract ( 396 )   HTML (   PDF (528KB) ( 252 )  
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