Abstract: Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data from 1951 to 2008 and the projected data from 2010 to 2099 by the multi-model ensemble under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in the 21st century, we analyzed the annual and seasonal changes of precipitation and temperature in the past 58 years, and estimated the climatic tendencies in the next 90 years. The results show that the annual precipitation decreased by 46.4 mm in the past 58 years, which wasn't statistically significant. The precipitation under each scenario has an obvious increasing tendency in the next 90 years. The increasing rates of precipitations under SRES A1B, A2 and B1 are all larger than that in the past 58 years. We also find whether in the past 58 years and in the next 90 years under each scenario, annual mean temperature is increasing and it is statistically significant.

Key words: Lancang River basin, climate change, projection, air temperature, precipitation