Impact of temperature and precipitation on runoff change in the source region of Lancang River

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.103

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the methods of linear regression, M-K and Pearson correlation analysis, the characteristics of the runoff change in the source region of Lancang River during 1960-2010 and its main influencing factors of temperature and precipitation were analyzed. Results show that there is a significant increasing trend of temperature in the source region of Lancang River and the winter temperature rise does the largest contribution (38%) to the annual increasing of temperature. The annual precipitation does not change significantly although there is a remarkable increasing trend of spring precipitation. The annual runoff in the study area exhibits no significant trend. However, both winter and spring runoff increase significantly. Correlation analysis shows that precipitation is the main controlling factor for the annual runoff. Monthly runoff change is also dominated by precipitation during the period with plentiful rainfall from June to October. However, the temperature has an important influence on runoff change during early spring and winter, which is attributed to the increasing temperature causing the accelerated melting of ice and snow. The quantitative analysis indicates that temperature has a larger contribution rate to runoff change than that of precipitation within early spring and winter.

Key words: Source region of Lancang River, Runoff change, Temperature, Precipitation

Ke WANG,Tao PU,Xiao-Yi SHI,Yan-Long KONG. Impact of temperature and precipitation on runoff change in the source region of Lancang River[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(3): 306-315.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 The geographical feature in the upper reach of Lancang River

Fig. 2 Annual mean temperature in the study area during 1960-2010

Table 1 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of temperature at the two meteorological stations

Fig. 3 Monthly mean runoff, precipitation and temperature in the study area

Fig. 4 Annual variation of precipitation in the study area during 1960-2010

Table 2 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of precipitation at the two meteorological stations

Fig. 5 Inter-annual variation of runoff depth in the study area during 1960-2010

Table 3 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of runoff depth in the study area

Table 4 The correlation coefficient between runoff depth and meteorological factors in the study area

Table 5 The contribution rate of meteorological factors to runoff variation in the study area

Table 6 The estimated percentage of glacier runoff in annual runoff in Lancang River catchment

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