Snowfall identification and response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under climate change in Henan province

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.105

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data of 119 national meteorological stations in Henan province in recent 55 years (1968-2022), the daily precipitation phase was labeled by daily weather phenomena, and the standardized snowfall fields were divided by the REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) method. A local regional snowfall identification method was established by using the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation. After obtaining more accurate snowfall amount through snowfall identification, the response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under the background of climate change was quantified. The results show that the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation has a high accuracy in snowfall identification in Henan province. The exponential equation can estimate the annual snowfall well. The correlation coefficient in each region is more than 0.97, and the absolute value of the average relative error is less than 2.7%. The increase of temperature contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall, and the effect intensity gradually weakened from south to north, and the decrease of precipitation contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall. Under the background of climate warming, the significant increase of temperature after 1994 played a major role in the influence of snowfall, and the probability of low temperature precipitation decreases, resulting in the overall decreasing trend of snowfall in Henan province.

Key words: Double temperature threshold method, Snowfall identification, Exponential equation, Climate change

ZHANG Fan, DING Jian-Fang, YANG Min, PENG Chong. Snowfall identification and response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under climate change in Henan province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 714-722.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Topographic map and meteorological stations of Henan province

Fig. 2 Snowfall field zoning and meteorological stations in Henan province

Table 1 Double temperature threshold in three regions of Henan province

Fig. 3 Fitting image of northern Henan region

Table 2 Parameter values of three regional exponential equations in Henan province

Table 3 Correlation of estimation effect in three regions of Henan province

Fig. 4 Annual mean temperature mutation test. (a) Mann-Kendall mutation test, (b) Pettitt mutation test and SNHT mutation test, and (c) sliding t-test

Table 4 Contributions of temperature and precipitation to changes in snowfall and changes of temperature, precipitation and snowfall before and after climate mutation

Fig. 5 Precipitation probability density map of northern (a), eastern (b) and southern (c) Henan region before and after climate mutation

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