Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.271

Abstract

Abstract:

There is a huge gap between the seismic fortification level of urban and rural housing buildings in China. The population exposed to low fortification rural areas and high-density cities are faced with high seismic risk. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyse the future urban and rural population and their exposure characteristics. Based on the data of the sixth national population census, this paper uses seismic intensity distribution and the population development environment (PDE) model to simulate the urban and rural population exposure to earthquake disaster of China’s city level units from 2010 to 2100 under five shared socio-economic scenarios (SSPs). The results show that: (1) Except for the continuous increase of urban population under SSP3, other SSP paths’ number of urban population in various regions increased first and then decreased, and rural population is declining due to urbanization; (2) The spatial distribution of high and medium high population exposure levels in urban and rural areas is similar, concentrated in North China, southwestern and eastern coastal areas of China; (3) Compared with fortified urban areas, the exposure level of non-fortified rural areas is high, and the number of high exposure areas are large. In the future, the exposure level of urban population will rise, while the exposure level of rural population will gradually decrease.

Key words: Population exposure, Urban and rural differences, Fortification level, Earthquake disaster, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), Climate change

ZHANG Hua, LI Wen-Li, LI Xue-Min, DONG Lin, YANG You-Tian, ZHANG Guo-Ming, XU Ying-Jun. Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 707-719.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of future population simulation technical route

Table 1 Target setting of China’s urbanization rate

Table 2 Fertility rate at different levels in China from 2010 to 2100

Fig. 2 Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map (PGA) of China (China Earthquake Administration)

Fig. 3 Classification of exposure levels of urban and rural population to PGA

Fig. 4 Future population change in urban and rural China under SSP scenario

Fig. 5 Error analysis of urban and rural population simulation results in 2015

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of future urban population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of future rural population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

Fig. 8 Earthquake disasters exposure level of future urban population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

Fig. 9 Earthquake disasters exposure level of future rural population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

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