The difference between new and old climate states and its impact on the assessment of climate and extreme event in China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.277

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily and monthly data of variables such as average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation at 2089 stations in China from 1961 to 2020, and the corresponding climate standard normals in 1981-2010 and 1991-2020, the difference of distribution between the two 30-year climate states were analyzed, followed by the investigation on the impact to the climate anomaly, the probability of extreme years (seasons), and extreme events. Under the new climate state, the three kinds of annual and seasonal temperature elements in China increase congruously, as well as the annual precipitation. Then the regional distribution difference of their corresponding climate anomaly will shrink. The anomaly of average wind speed and sunshine hours increase in the east of North China, the middle and north of East China and the southeast of Qinghai province. The probability of extreme high temperature year decreases and that of extreme low changes oppositely. Compared to the maximum temperature, the average and minimum temperature are more affected. Both of the probabilities of extreme heavy precipitation on the north and south rain belts in summer, and the probability of extreme weak precipitation in the middle and south of Northeast, North, the north of East and the east of Northwest China in winter significantly raise. The historical frequency of daily extreme high temperature, low temperature and heavy precipitation events at more than half of the stations in China has changed. The new climate state also weakens the growth rate of daily extreme high temperature events and accelerates the deceleration of daily extreme low temperature events. In the business, it is necessary to reanalyze extreme years (seasons) and extreme events.

Key words: Climate state, Climate change, Extreme event, Disasters, Climate assessment

MEI Mei, HOU Wei, ZHOU Xing-Yan. The difference between new and old climate states and its impact on the assessment of climate and extreme event in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 653-669.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 The differences of the 30-year mean temperatures between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Mean temperature, (b) maximum temperature, (c) minimum temperature. (The dotted areas indicate that the differences between the two periods exceeded the 95% confidence level of t test)

Fig. 2 The differences of the annual variables between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Precipitation, (b) relative humidity, (c) average wind speed, (d) sunshine hours

Fig. 3 The differences of the seasonal average temperatures (a-d), maximum temperatures (e-h), minimum temperatures (i-l) between the new and old climate states over China. (a, e, i) Spring, (b, f, j) summer, (c, g, k) autumn, (d, h, l) winter

Fig. 4 The relative changes of the seasonal precipitation between the old and new climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

Fig. 5 The differences of the seasonal relative humidity between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

Fig. 6 The differences of the seasonal average wind speed between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

Fig. 7 The differences of the seasonal sunshine hours between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

Fig. 8 The differences in probabilities of extreme high (a, c, e) and low (b, d, f) temperatures years between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Mean temperature, (c, d) maximum temperature, (e, f) minimum temperature

Table 1 The differences of extreme year or season frequencies during 1961-2020

Fig. 9 The differences in probabilities of extreme more (a, c, e) and less (b, d, f) precipitation seasons between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Summer, (c, d) winter

Fig. 10 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) thresholds and their probability densities (d, e, f) between the new and old climate states at the meteorological observation stations over China

Fig. 11 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) frequency between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020

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