Climate Change Research ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 293-304.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.247

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impact assessment of climate warming and wetting on agricultural economy in Northwest China: a case study of Ningxia

LUO Hui1,2,3, LIU Jie4(), WANG Li5, TANG Zhi-Yi6   

  1. 1 Ningxia Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750002, China
    2 Qinling Mountains Field Experiment Station for Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Xi’an 710015, China
    3 Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Management for Special Agriculture in Dry Areas, CMA, Yinchuan 750002, China
    4 International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
    5 Xi’an Meteorological Bureau, Xi’an 710016, China
    6 School of Future Technology, Xi’an Jiao tong University, Xi’an 710049, China
  • Received:2022-10-26 Revised:2022-12-15 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-04-13


This paper takes the agricultural economy of Ningxia as an example, integrates the interdisciplinary theories of climatology and economics, quantitatively assesses the differential impacts of historical climate change and extreme events on the agricultural economic output of Ningxia from 1991 to 2020 based on micro-econometric methods, and then the potential impacts of climate change under the SSP3-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP6.0 scenarios are estimated, respectively. The results show that both mean temperature and precipitation affect the agricultural economy non-linearly, extreme weather and climate events significantly inhibit agricultural economic growth, and extreme high temperature and heavy drought do not form a “hot-dry” compound hazard impact. The SSP2-RCP6.0 development pathway significantly mitigates the potential negative impacts of future warming relative to the SSP3-RCP8.5 pathway. The results of this assessment reveal the complex impacts of warming and wetting on the agricultural economy in Northwest China, and help to provide a scientific basis for optimal regional adaptation to climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme weather and climate events, Agricultural economy, Warming and wetting, The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

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