Impact assessment of climate warming and wetting on agricultural economy in Northwest China: a case study of Ningxia

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.247

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper takes the agricultural economy of Ningxia as an example, integrates the interdisciplinary theories of climatology and economics, quantitatively assesses the differential impacts of historical climate change and extreme events on the agricultural economic output of Ningxia from 1991 to 2020 based on micro-econometric methods, and then the potential impacts of climate change under the SSP3-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP6.0 scenarios are estimated, respectively. The results show that both mean temperature and precipitation affect the agricultural economy non-linearly, extreme weather and climate events significantly inhibit agricultural economic growth, and extreme high temperature and heavy drought do not form a “hot-dry” compound hazard impact. The SSP2-RCP6.0 development pathway significantly mitigates the potential negative impacts of future warming relative to the SSP3-RCP8.5 pathway. The results of this assessment reveal the complex impacts of warming and wetting on the agricultural economy in Northwest China, and help to provide a scientific basis for optimal regional adaptation to climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme weather and climate events, Agricultural economy, Warming and wetting, The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

LUO Hui, LIU Jie, WANG Li, TANG Zhi-Yi. Impact assessment of climate warming and wetting on agricultural economy in Northwest China: a case study of Ningxia[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 293-304.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Relationship diagram of agricultural economic output and climate change

Fig. 2 Area of study

Table 1 Descriptive statistics of data

Fig. 3 Variation of climatic factors in irrigated and non-irrigated areas during 1991-2020

Table 2 Semi-elastic estimates of agricultural economic output to mean temperature and precipitation

Fig. 4 Nonlinear effects of mean temperature and precipitation in Ningxia

Table 3 Semi-elastic estimates of agricultural economic output to extreme weather and climate events

Table 4 Temperature and precipitation changes and impacts in Ningxia in the 21st century

Fig. 5 Dynamic semi-elastic parameters of mean temperature and precipitation under future climate change

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