Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 455-465.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.222

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Comprehensive assessment of “climate change-crop yield-economic impact” in seven sub-regions of China

LIU Yuan1,2, WANG Fang1,2, ZHANG Zheng-Tao1,2(), HUANG Cheng-Fang1,2, CHEN Xi1,2, LI Ning1,2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education & Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2020-09-22 Revised:2020-10-23 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-08-11
  • Contact: ZHANG Zheng-Tao


Agriculture is one of the most sensitive areas in response to climate change, and future crop yields may be profoundly affected. To quantitatively assess the final economic impact of climate change on crop yields, it is necessary to conduct a chain study on the comprehensive “climate change-crop yield-economic impact”. In this study systematic assessment and Meta regression methods were used to integrate 667 research results from 55 literatures, deriving the quantitative relationship between the main crop yields (rice, corn, wheat) in the seven sub-regions of China and future temperature and precipitation changes in the local area. Subsequently, the crop yields data were input to the improved multi-regional input-output model as the loss of the agricultural sector to evaluate the economic ripple effects (ERE) in and between the seven sub-regions. Results are as follows. (1) The impact of climate change on crop yields was mainly reflected in temperature increases, with an average yield loss of 2.6%-12.7% per℃, and with crop yields being more vulnerable in Northeast China and Northwest China than in other sub-regions. (2) Crop failure caused by climate change is estimated to have a more serious impact on China’s economy, each 1% drop in GDP due to crop failure will have an additional 17.8% ripple effects. (3) At the end of the 21st century, the ERE is -0.1% - 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ERE in the most pessimistic pathway is equivalent to the total agricultural output in China in 2012. (4) Sub-regional-level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. Southwest China experiences 2.8-8.5 times more ERE than East China.

Key words: Climate change, Economic ripple effects (ERE), Crop yield, Systematic assessment, Meta regression analysis, Input-output analysis

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