Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961-2018

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.102

Abstract

Abstract:

The dry season is an important period for drought, water ecology and water resources. The changes of runoff in the dry season affect the river ecology and water resources management directly. Based on grid meteorological data and the dry season runoff data of the major rivers in China, the trend of climate change and the evolution characteristics and causes of dry season runoff for major rivers in China from 1961 to 2018 were analyzed. Results indicated that the average temperature in the dry season rose significantly in the whole country, with the northern region warming up earlier and more significantly, and the southern region warming up significantly during in 2001-2018. About 84% of the regions in China had an upward trend of precipitation in the dry season, and about 42.2% of the regions had a significant increase. The precipitation in the dry season increased significantly in the northwest, northeast and southeast of China, while the change in the central part was not significant. The runoff of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the Haihe River during the dry season decreased significantly. The dry season runoff of the middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2001-2018 decreased by 34% compared with the baseline of 1961-1980, and the Haihe River decreased by more than 80%. The dry season runoff of the upper reaches of the Songhua River and Yangtze River increased significantly. The dry season runoff of the upper reaches of the Songhua River in 2001-2018 increased by 67% and the Yangtze River basin increased by about 16%. The increase of precipitation in dry season led to the increase of runoff in the upper reaches of the Songhua River, Liao River, Huaihe River, Yangtze River and Pearl River. The significant rise in temperature has a significant negative effect on the dry season runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and Haihe River. Human activities are the main factors affecting the decline of runoff in the middle reaches of the Songhua River, Yellow River and Haihe River during the dry season. Although the increase of dry season precipitation in the whole country has a positive effect on alleviating the ecological and water resource problems, the significant increase in human activities and temperature accelerates the consumption of water resources and increases the vulnerability of water resources.

Key words: Climate change, Human activities, Dry season runoff, Evolution characters, Causes

SHU Zhang-Kang, ZHANG Jian-Yun, JIN Jun-Liang, WANG Guo-Qing, WANG Lin, CAO Min-Xiong. Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961-2018[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 340-351.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Basic information of the representative hydrometric stations on major rivers in China

Fig. 1 Major river system and locations of the representative hydrological stations in China

Fig. 2 Trend of the annual and dry season temperature during 1961-2018 in China

Fig. 3 Changes in the recorded dry season temperature during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961-1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

Fig. 4 Same as Fig. 2, but for precipitation

Fig. 5 Changes in the recorded dry season precipitation during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961?1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

Table 2 MK trend values of the recorded annual and dry season runoff from 1961-2018 gauged at the representative hydrometric stations on the 7 major rivers in China

Fig. 6 Changes in the recorded dry season runoff during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961?1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

Fig. 7 Double accumulation curve of rainfall?runoff depth in dry season at representative hydrological stations in 1961-2018

Fig. 8 The response relationship between the dry season runoff and climatic factors at representative hydrological stations

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