Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.246

Abstract

Abstract:

The Ganjiang River basin (GJRB) and the Guanting River basin (GTRB) were selected to study the impacts of climate change on river runoff in the eastern monsoon region. HBV hydrological model was calibrated and validated based on observed daily meteorological and discharge data. Five sets of downscaled and bias corrected outputs of GCM from CMIP5 were used to drive HBV model to assess the climate change impacts in the 21st century under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results indicate that (1) annual mean temperature from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with rate of 0.17℃/(10 a) and 0.28℃/(10 a), respectively, in the GJRB and the GTRB. Increase of air temperature in the GTRB was faster than the GJRB. Meanwhile, annual precipitation increased significantly in the GJRB, but a weak decrease was detected in the GTRB. Under 3 RCP, both GJRB and GTRB were projected to be in a warmer and wetter climatic condition in the 21st century, but increase of temperature and precipitation in the GTRB will be more notable than the GJRB. (2) In the 21st century, the increase of annual and seasonal runoff in the GTRB will be greater than that in the GJRB. The annual runoff in the GTRB will show a consistent increase trend in the near term (2020-2039), mid-century (2050-2069) and late century (2080-2099), with the largest increase under RCP8.5 and the smallest under RCP4.5. As for the GJRB, annual runoff for the near term and the mid-century may decrease slightly relative to the baseline (1986-2005), but the runoff trend in the entire 21st century will be positive under RCP4.5. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, increase of runoff will be weakened after the mid-21st century. (3) Flood risk in the GTRB and drought risk in the GJRB will be aggregated in the 21st century.

Key words: Climate change, Hydrological response, HBV model, The Ganjiang River basin, The Guanting River basin, Projection

ZHAO Meng-Xia, SU Bu-Da, WANG Yan-Jun, WANG An-Qian, JIANG Tong. Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(6): 679-689.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Location of climate model grids and hydrological stations in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

Fig. 2 Comparison of simulated and observed monthly runoff during calibration period (1971-1974) and validation period (1975-1978) in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

Table 1 Evaluation of performance of HBV model in the calibration and validation periods

Fig. 3 Comparison of monthly mean temperature (a) and monthly precipitation (b) by multi-model ensemble mean and observation for 1986-2005 in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

Fig. 4 Projected changes of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation during 2006-2099 in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins under different RCP (relative to 1986-2005)

Fig. 5 Projection of annual runoff in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins during 2006-2099 under three RCP (relative to 1986-2005)

Fig. 6 Changes of monthly runoff for the near, mid- and late 21st century in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins under different RCP (Relative to 1986-2005)

Table 2 Percentage change of high flow and low flow for the near, mid- and late 21st century in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins (relative to 1986-2005)

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