Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 679-689.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.246

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region

ZHAO Meng-Xia1,4, SU Bu-Da1,2, WANG Yan-Jun3, WANG An-Qian1,4, JIANG Tong3()   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    2 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3 School of Geographical Sciences/Institute for Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-10-29 Revised:2020-01-13 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-12-03
  • Contact: JIANG Tong


The Ganjiang River basin (GJRB) and the Guanting River basin (GTRB) were selected to study the impacts of climate change on river runoff in the eastern monsoon region. HBV hydrological model was calibrated and validated based on observed daily meteorological and discharge data. Five sets of downscaled and bias corrected outputs of GCM from CMIP5 were used to drive HBV model to assess the climate change impacts in the 21st century under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results indicate that (1) annual mean temperature from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with rate of 0.17℃/(10 a) and 0.28℃/(10 a), respectively, in the GJRB and the GTRB. Increase of air temperature in the GTRB was faster than the GJRB. Meanwhile, annual precipitation increased significantly in the GJRB, but a weak decrease was detected in the GTRB. Under 3 RCP, both GJRB and GTRB were projected to be in a warmer and wetter climatic condition in the 21st century, but increase of temperature and precipitation in the GTRB will be more notable than the GJRB. (2) In the 21st century, the increase of annual and seasonal runoff in the GTRB will be greater than that in the GJRB. The annual runoff in the GTRB will show a consistent increase trend in the near term (2020-2039), mid-century (2050-2069) and late century (2080-2099), with the largest increase under RCP8.5 and the smallest under RCP4.5. As for the GJRB, annual runoff for the near term and the mid-century may decrease slightly relative to the baseline (1986-2005), but the runoff trend in the entire 21st century will be positive under RCP4.5. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, increase of runoff will be weakened after the mid-21st century. (3) Flood risk in the GTRB and drought risk in the GJRB will be aggregated in the 21st century.

Key words: Climate change, Hydrological response, HBV model, The Ganjiang River basin, The Guanting River basin, Projection

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