Streamflow variation in the eastern Pamirs and its response to climate change

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.042

Abstract

Abstract:

Water resources were the vital factors restricting the sustainable development of social economy and ecological security in the arid region of Northwest China. The Kashgar River and Yarkant River Basins, which originated in the eastern Pamirs, were taken as the study area. Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data from six meteorological stations and monthly streamflow data from the mountain-pass hydrological stations of the five representative rivers in the eastern Pamirs, the hydroclimate change characteristics and the response of streamflow to changing climate were analyzed. The results are as follow. (1) The precipitation and temperature both showed a significant increasing trend. Except for the Gaizi River, streamflow of all other four rivers showed a significant increasing linear trend. The intra-annual distribution and inter-annual change characteristics of streamflow from different rivers reflected the differences in the main recharge sources. (2) The streamflow in the eastern Pamirs was affected by the combined effects of temperature and precipitation. Annual streamflow dominated by glacier meltwater (the Yarkant River, Kashgar River, and Gaizi River) was mainly affected by summer temperature, and it was significantly positive correlated with the temperature from June to August. While, the streamflow dominated by rainfall and seasonal snow meltwater (the Tizinafu River and Kezi River) was significantly positive correlated with the precipitation from July of the previous year to June at the 0.001 significance level. (3) With the increasing temperature and precipitation, the evaporation of the watershed intensified, and the response of streamflow in the eastern Pamirs to climate change had changed significantly: the positive correlation between streamflow and temperature weakened, and the positive correlation between streamflow and precipitation from previous July to June strengthened.

Key words: The Pamirs, Yarkant River, Kashgar River, Streamflow, Climate change

SHANG Hua-Ming, FAN Yu-Ting, ZHANG Rui-Bo, YU Shu-Long, ZHANG Tong-Wen, WEI Wen-Shou, Liu Wei-Ping. Streamflow variation in the eastern Pamirs and its response to climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 352-360.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Location of the study area and distribution of the hydrological and meteorological stations

Table 1 Information of the meteorological stations

Table 2 Information of the hydrological stations

Fig. 2 Annual temperature and precipitation change in the eastern Pamirs

Table 3 Correlation coefficients among the annual streamflow of 5 rivers in the eastern Pamirs

Fig. 3 Annual streamflow anomaly percentage change of the rivers in the eastern Pamirs

Fig. 4 Intra-annual distribution features of the streamflow

Fig. 5 Correlation coefficients between annual streamflow and monthly temperature, precipitation from May in the previous year to December

Table 4 Correlation coefficients between annual streamflows and climatic factors in the eastern Pmairs

Fig. 6 Correlation coefficients with the 21-year moving window between annual streamflow and temperature and precipitationin the eastern Pamirs

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