实现国家自主贡献目标背景下我国碳交易机制研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.069

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以实现国家自主贡献目标为背景,运用电力行业细分的递推动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,模拟我国统一碳市场下不同碳交易机制的实施效果及其经济影响。研究表明,全国统一碳市场有助于我国实现国家自主贡献目标,并且可以缓解碳减排对经济增长造成的负面影响;相比基于碳排放量免费分配初始碳配额的“祖父法则”,基于碳强度基准免费分配初始碳配额的“标杆法则”可以降低碳交易价格、增加碳配额交易量并扩大碳市场规模;采取拍卖方式有偿分配初始碳配额时碳市场中各行业面临更大的减排成本,但有利于增加政府收入;对碳市场未覆盖的行业和居民户征收碳税能有效控制其碳排放、增加政府财政收入、降低碳交易价格并促进我国国家自主贡献目标的实现;全国统一碳市场在抑制火电行业发展的同时将不同程度地促进清洁能源发电部门的发展。

关键词: 全国统一碳市场, 碳交易机制, 碳税, CGE模型, 国家自主贡献

Abstract:

Under the background of achieving China’s targets of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with distinguished disaggregation in the electric power sector was developed to simulate the implementation effects and economic impacts of different designs of carbon trading mechanism for the national carbon market. Results show that national carbon market can help China to achieve the NDC targets and reduce the negative impacts of carbon emission reduction on GDP growth. Comparing with the rule of grandfathering allocation based on carbon emission, allocating initial carbon allowance freely under the rule of benchmarking allocation based on carbon-intensity can decrease carbon price, increase the volume of trading allowance and enlarge the scale of the carbon market. Allocating initial carbon allowance by auctioning will cause larger mitigation cost for the industries covered by the carbon market but can increase government revenue. Levying carbon tax on industries and households not covered by the carbon market can control their carbon emission effectively, increase government revenue, reduce the carbon trading price and promote the achievement of China’s NDC targets. The national carbon market will restrain thermal power industry whereas promote the development of clean energy power generation industries to different extent.

Key words: National carbon market, Carbon trading mechanism, Carbon tax, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)

肖谦, 庞军, 许昀, 陈晖, 曾文婉. 实现国家自主贡献目标背景下我国碳交易机制研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 617-631.

XIAO Qian, PANG Jun, Xu Yun, CHEN Hui, Zeng Wen-Wan. Research on carbon trading mechanism of China at the background of achieving the NDC targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 617-631.

图/表 13

图1 非电力部门CES生产函数的嵌套结构

Fig. 1 Nested structure of CES production function for non-electric power industries

图2 电力部门CES生产函数的嵌套结构

Fig. 2 Nested structure of CES production function for electric power industries

表1 不同发电技术的度电成本及发电量

Table 1 Levelized costs and generated power by technologies

图3 动态基准情景下中国GDP和GDP增长率(a)、能源消费结构(b)、电力生产结构(c)以及CO2排放量(d)

Fig. 3 China’s GDP and its growth rate, consumption, electric power consumption structure and CO2 emissions under baseline

表2 碳交易政策情景

Table 2 Policy scenarios of carbon emission trading system in this study

图4 中国在全部碳交易政策情景下实现国家自主贡献目标所要求的CO2排放总量

Fig. 4 Total CO2 emission of China to achieve NDC targets under all policy scenarios

表3 不同碳交易情景下的碳交易价格

Table 3 Carbon price in different scenarios

表4 不同碳交易情景下2030年各行业免费碳配额

Table 4 Free allowance by industry under different scenarios in 2030

表5 不同碳交易情景下2030年各行业碳配额交易量

Table 5 Trading allowance by industry under different scenarios in 2030

表6 不同碳交易情景下2030年全国碳配额交易量和交易额

Table 6 Total trading allowance and the values in 2030 under different scenarios

图5 不同碳交易情景下对2030年GDP的影响

Fig. 5 Impacts on GDP in 2030 under different policy scenarios

表7 不同碳交易情景下对2030年电力部门产出的影响

Table 7 Impacts on the output of electric power sectors in 2030 under all scenarios

图6 不同碳交易情景下对2030年政府收入的影响

Fig. 6 Impacts on the governmental income in 2030 under all scenarios

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