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气候变化研究进展  2018, Vol. 14 Issue (6): 621-631    DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.060
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基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估
洪祎君1,2,崔惠娟1,王芳1,葛全胜1,2
1 中国科学院地理科学与资源环境研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
Estimation of financial need based on the (I)NDCs of developing countries
Yi-Jun HONG1,2,Hui-Juan CUI1,Fang WANG1,Quan-Sheng GE1,2
1 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Patterns and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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摘要 

国家自主贡献文件是《巴黎协定》后发展中国家气候资金需求信息的重要载体。发展中国家的气候资金需求日益增长,而发达国家提供的气候资金存在的不平衡与不充分等问题,已成为当前气候资金议题的主要矛盾。因此,本文依据最新的151份发展中国家的国家自主贡献文件,深入分析发展中国家自主提出的未来气候资金需求,并评估了各国自主贡献资金需求的合理性。研究发现,151个发展中国家中有84个国家提出具体的国家自主贡献资金需求,其国家自主贡献时间框架内的资金需求总值达4.4万亿美元;分析48个同时提出减缓与适应资金需求以及21个同时提出国内与国外资金需求国家的国家自主贡献文件得到,发展中国家资金需求类别中用于减缓与适应的资金需求比例约为6?4,国外资金需求与国内资金需求比值约为7?3;基于国家自主贡献文件估算的发展中国家累积减排量到2030年约119 Gt CO2-eq,自主贡献减排成本平均值为50美元/ t CO2-eq;发展中国家2015—2030年国家自主贡献资金需求预期为1万亿~4万亿美元,年均700亿~2600亿美元,其中国际资金需求为0.7万亿~2.8万亿美元,年均500亿~1900亿美元。

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洪祎君
崔惠娟
王芳
葛全胜
关键词:  国家自主贡献  气候资金需求  减排成本  气候变化应对    
Abstract: 

After the Paris Agreement were signed, (I)NDCs ((intended) nationally determined contributions) become the important materials to obtain the information on climate financial needs for developing countries. The climate financial demands requested from developing countries keep increasing, while the financial supports from developed countries are imbalance and insufficiency, which has become the major contradiction of the climate financial issue. In this study, 151 (I)NDCs were analyzed to predict the future climate financial demand by developing countries. Out of the 151 developing countries, 84 countries have put forward specific amount of financial requests, whose total financial demands in the timeframe add up to US$4.4 trillion. According to the analysis of 48 countries which posed financial demand for mitigation and adaptation at the same time, the ratio of mitigation financial demand and adaptation financial demand is 6?4; and the analysis of 21 countries which posed financial demand from domestic and international at the same time, shows that the ratio between the two financial support origins is 3?7. By 2030, the cumulative emission reductions of developing countries will amount to approximately 119 Gt CO2-eq, the average abatement cost estimated from the (I)NDCs is US$50/t CO2-eq, which is much higher than the reasonable abatement cost estimated based on other research results. The demand for financial need of developing countries is expected to be US$1 trillion-4 trillion, averaging US$70 billion-260 billion per year, of which international financial demand is US$0.7 trillion-2.8 trillion, averaging US$50 billion-190 billion per year.

Key words:  (I)NDCs ((intended) nationally determined contributions)    Climate financial needs    Mitigation cost    Response to climate change
收稿日期:  2018-04-24      修回日期:  2018-07-09           出版日期:  2018-11-30      发布日期:  2018-11-30      期的出版日期:  2018-11-30
基金资助: 国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0605303);国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602800);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41877454)
通讯作者:  崔惠娟   
作者简介:  洪祎君,女,博士研究生;
引用本文:    
洪祎君, 崔惠娟, 王芳, 葛全胜. 基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 621-631.
Yi-Jun HONG, Hui-Juan CUI, Fang WANG, Quan-Sheng GE. Estimation of financial need based on the (I)NDCs of developing countries. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 621-631.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.060  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2018/V14/I6/621
Table 1  The (I)NDCs definitions of different mitigation types with corresponding country number of developing countries
图1  84个提出具体资金需求的发展中国家提出实现有、无条件自主贡献目标对应的资金需求国家数(a)和不同资金需求类型(b)情况
图2  提出具体资金需求的84个发展中国家自主贡献资金需求金额及分布
图3  减缓与适应资金需求比例
图4  (I)NDCs资金需求国内外资金比例
图5  根据自主贡献文件提供的减排量信息对自主贡献减排目标类型分类
Table 2  The (I)NDCs mitigation cost of each continent and nation type
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