“一带一路”沿线主要国家碳捕集、利用和封存潜力与前景研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.110

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳捕集、利用和封存（CCUS）技术是世界公认的最有前景的碳减排技术之一,它在不改变能源结构的前提下,实现碳的有效封存,是协调经济发展和环境可持续的双赢策略。为了探讨“一带一路”沿线主要国家CCUS技术的发展前景,文中基于CO₂封存机理和CO₂在油藏和气藏中理论封存量的评估方法,分析了“一带一路”沿线主要国家CO₂的封存潜力。结果表明,“一带一路”沿线主要国家有较高的CO₂封存潜力, 在油藏和气藏中的理论封存量达到6200亿t。虽然目前沿线大部分国家CCUS技术都处于起步阶段,但在政府投资和政策的支持下,CCUS技术将为“一带一路”沿线主要国家碳减排目标的实现做出重要贡献。

关键词: 碳捕集、利用和封存（CCUS）, 一带一路, CO₂封存潜力, 评估方法, 气候变化

Abstract:

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is regarded as a very promising technology to reduce CO₂ emission worldwide. It is a win-win strategy to coordinate economic development and environment to achieve effective carbon storage without changing the energy structure. The potential and prospects of CCUS technology are analyzed in the main Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries in this paper, based on the mechanism of CO₂ storage in different formation, and a new evaluation method of CO₂ storage capacity. The result shows that the main BRI countries have great CO₂ storage potential of around 620 Gt. Currently, although CCUS technology is in the initial stage, with the support of government investment and policies, it will make a great contribution to the development of green and low-carbon economy in these countries.

Key words: Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CO₂ storage capacity, Evaluation method, Climate change

孙丽丽, 崔惠娟, 葛全胜. “一带一路”沿线主要国家碳捕集、利用和封存潜力与前景研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 609-616.

SUN Li-Li, CUI Hui-Juan, GE Quan-Sheng. Potential and prospect of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in the main Belt and Road Initiative countries[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 609-616.

图/表 5

表1 CO2封存机理及特点

Table 1 Characteristics of CO2 storage mechanisms

表2 “一带一路”沿线主要国家的CO2在油藏和气藏中的理论封存量

Table 2 The theoretical CO2 storage capacity of the main Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries in oil and gas reservoirs

图1 “一带一路”沿线主要国家油藏(a)和气藏(b)理论CO2封存量分布

Fig. 1 The distribution of the theoretical CO2 storage capacity in oil (a) and gas (b) reservoirs in BRI countries

图2 2000—2017 年“一带一路”主要国家碳排放及占全球比重

Fig. 2 Total carbon emission of main BRI countries and its proportion to global total emission during 2000-2017

图3 CCUS在“一带一路”沿线主要国家开展的情况

Fig. 3 Status of CCUS in main BRI countries

参考文献 23

[1]	傅京燕, 司秀梅. “一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力[J]. 热带地理, 2017,37(1):1-9. doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002917 URL
	Fu J Y, Si X M. Driving factors of carbon emission of the countries along “the Belt and Road”, their potential and contribution to the emission reduction[J]. Tropical Geography, 2017,37(1):1-9 (in Chinese)
[2]	British Petroleum. BP statistical review of world energy 2018 [R/OL]. 2018 [2019-05-16]. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf
[3]	IPCC. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Summary for policy makers [M/OL]. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014 [2019-05-16]. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
[4]	Minchener A J. Gasification based CCS challenges and opportunities for China[J]. Fuel, 2014,116(1):904-909 doi: 10.1016/j.fuel.2013.02.046 URL
[5]	He M, Luis S, Rita S. et al Risk assessment of CO₂ injection processes and storage in carboniferous formations: a review[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 2011,3(1):39-56 doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1235.2011.00039 URL
[6]	Sun L L, Dou H E, Li Z P, et al. Assessment of CO₂ storage potential and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage prospect in China[J]. Journal of the energy institute, 2018,91:970-977 doi: 10.1016/j.joei.2017.08.002 URL
[7]	Liu T, Xu G, Liu X, et al. Impacts of CCS and other CO₂ mitigation options on China’s electric power industry[C]. IEEE: Power & Energy Engineering Conference, 2010,104:28-31
[8]	中国21世纪议程管理中心, 科学技术部. 中国碳捕集、利用与封存技术发展路线图[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2019.
	The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology. Roadmap for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage technology development in China [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2019 (in Chinese)
[9]	沈平平, 廖新维, 刘庆杰. 二氧化碳在油藏中埋存量计算方法[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2009,36(2):216-220. doi: 10.1016/S1876-3804(09)60121-X URL
	Shen P P, Liao X W, Liu Q J. Methodology for estimation of CO₂ storage capacity in reservoirs[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2009,36(2):216-220 (in Chinese)
[10]	赵晓亮, 廖新维, 王万福, 等. 二氧化碳埋存潜力评价模型与关键参数的确定[J]. 特种油气藏, 2013,20(6):72-74.
	Zhao X L, Liao X W, Wang W F, et al. Evaluative model of CO₂ geological sequestration and determination of key parameters[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2013,20(6):72-74 (in Chinese)
[11]	Zhang L, Li X, Ren B, et al. CO₂ storage potential and trapping mechanisms in the H-59 block of Jilin oilfield China[J]. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2016,49:267-280 doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.03.013 URL
[12]	孙扬, 杜志敏, 孙雷, 等. CO₂的埋存与提高天然气采收率的相行为[J]. 天然气工业, 2012,32(5):39-42. doi: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2012.05.010 URL
	Sun Y, Du Z M, Sun L, et al. Phase behavior of CO₂ sequestration and the enhanced natural gas recovery[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2012,32(5):39-42 (in Chinese)
[13]	Goodman A, Hakala A, Bromhal G, et al. U.S. DOE methodology for the development of geologic storage potential for carbon dioxide at the national and regional scale[J]. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2011,5(4):952-965 doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2011.03.010 URL
[14]	CSLF. Estimation of CO₂ storage capacity in geological media [R/OL]. 2007 [2019-05-16]. https://www.cslforum.org/cslf/sites/default/files/documents/PhaseIIIReportStorageCapacityEstimationTaskForce0408.pdf
[15]	Warwick P D, Verma M K, Attanasi E D, et al. A database and probabilistic assessment methodology for carbon dioxide: enhanced oil recovery and associated carbon dioxide retention in the United States[J]. Energy Procedia, 2017,114:7055-7059 doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1847 URL
[16]	谢尚贤, 韩培慧. 大庆油田萨南东部过渡带注CO₂驱油先导性矿场试验研究[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 1997 (3):13-19.
	Xie S X, Han P H. A pilot test and research on oil displacement by injecting CO₂ in eastern Sanan of Daqing oilfield[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 1997 (3):13-19 (in Chinese)
[17]	史云清, 贾英, 潘伟义, 等. 致密低渗透气藏注CO₂提高采收率潜力评价[J]. 天然气工业, 2017,37(3):62-69.
	Shi Y Q, Jia Y, Pan W Y, et al. Potential evaluation on CO₂-EGR in tight and low-permeability reservoirs[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2017,37(3):62-69 (in Chinese)
[18]	陈欢庆, 胡永乐, 田昌炳. CO₂驱油与埋存研究进展[J]. 油田化学, 2012,29(1):118-123.
	Chen H Q, Hu Y L, Tian C B. Advances in CO₂ displacing oil and CO₂ sequestrated researches[J]. Oilfield Chemistry, 2012,29(1):118-123 (in Chinese)
[19]	罗二辉, 胡永乐, 李保柱, 等. 中国油气田注CO₂提高采收率实践[J]. 特种油气藏, 2013,20(2):1-7.
	Luo E H, Hu Y L, Li B Z, et al. Practices of CO₂ EOR in China[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2013,20(2):1-7 (in Chinese)
[20]	Sun L L, Hao X N, Dou H E, et al. Co-optimization of oil recovery and CO₂ storage for cyclic CO₂ flooding in ultralow permeability reservoirs[J]. Oil & Gas Science and Technology, 2018,73(42):1-7
[21]	Duan Z. An improved model calculating CO₂ solubility in pure water and aqueous NaCl solutions from 273 to 533 K and from 0 to 2000 bar[J]. Chemical Geology, 2003,193(3):257-271 doi: 10.1016/S0009-2541(02)00263-2 URL
[22]	Global CCS Institute. The global status of CCS: 2015. Volume 2: projects, policy and markets [R/OL]. 2015 [2019-05-16]. https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/publications-reports-research/the-global-status-of-ccs-2015-volume-2-projects-policy-and-markets/
[23]	International Energy Agency. IEA energy technology perspectives 2015 [R/OL]. 2015 [2019-05-16]. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2015