“十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.060

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 649-659.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.060

“十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析

李继峰¹,顾阿伦²(),张成龙³,孙振清⁴

1 国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所,北京 100010
2 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084
3 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 102209
4 天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津 300222

收稿日期:2019-03-20 修回日期:2019-04-17 出版日期:2019-11-30 发布日期:2019-11-30
通讯作者: 顾阿伦 E-mail:gal@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:李继峰,男,副研究员,5008117@qq.com
基金资助:
第四次气候变化国家评估报告：减缓气候变化;科技部国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602800);国网电网公司总部科技项目“我国多区域能源供需综合分析预测模型体系研究及开发”;国家自然科学基金项目(71573145);国家自然科学基金项目(71573062)

Economic development, energy demand and carbon emission prospects of China’s provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan—an application of CMRCGE model

Ji-Feng LI¹,A-Lun GU²(),Cheng-Long ZHANG³,Zhen-Qing SUN⁴

1 Institute of Resources and Environmental Policies, Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100010, China
2 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
4 Tianjin Science and Technology University, Tianjin 300222, China

Received:2019-03-20 Revised:2019-04-17 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
Contact: A-Lun GU E-mail:gal@tsinghua.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在梳理新常态以来各省经济布局发展以及能源需求特征的基础上,重点剖析了国家区域协调发展战略,并利用中国多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型（China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium,CMRCGE）,对“十四五”时期各省经济社会发展、能源需求及碳排放进行了模拟分析。主要结论包括：(1)在区域协调发展战略指引下,预计到“十四五”末,中国将有13个省市人均GDP超过1.5万美元,16个省市人均GDP在1.0万~1.5万美元之间,各省经济有望实现平稳较快发展。(2)预计2025年各省能源需求总量可达54.5亿tce（由于数据原因,未测算西藏）,“十四五”年均增长约为1.5%,能源需求仍保持低速增长。同时能源需求的重心逐步从东部向中部转移,而西部地区能源大省的用能比重基本保持稳定,这与各地所处的经济发展阶段、区域协调发展战略导向基本一致。(3)“十四五”时期各省的碳排放（主要考虑能源利用碳排放）强度年均降幅约为5.4%,绝大部分省份降幅超过4.0%。近年来碳强度显著下降的趋势有望继续保持。

关键词: 协调发展, CMRCGE模型, “十四五”规划, 能源需求, 碳排放

Abstract:

Based on the economic development of the provinces and the characteristics of energy demand since the New Normal, this paper focuses on the national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CMRCGE) model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2021-2025). The main conclusions include: (1) Under the guidance of the regional coorlinated development strategy, it is estimated that by the end of the 14th FYP, 13 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of more than US\$15000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US\$10000?15000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. (2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 billion tce in 2025 (excluding Tibet), and the average annual growth rate is about 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The focus of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain basically stable, which is basically consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. (3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering energy use carbon emissions) during the 14th FYP will drop approximately 5.4%, with most provinces dropping by more than 4.0%. The trend of a significant decline in carbon intensity in recent years is expected to continue.

Key words: Coordinated development, China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CMRCGE) model, 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP), Energy demand, Carbon emissions

李继峰,顾阿伦,张成龙,孙振清. “十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 649-659.

Ji-Feng LI,A-Lun GU,Cheng-Long ZHANG,Zhen-Qing SUN. Economic development, energy demand and carbon emission prospects of China’s provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan—an application of CMRCGE model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 649-659.

图/表 7

图1 模型逻辑与工作原理示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of model logic and working principle

图2 新常态以来中国煤炭供应布局的调整注：(1)图中横纵坐标的最大值均取5%,以自原点画出的对角线为界,上面反映了各省在2013年或2016年的煤炭产量占比高于2007年,反之亦然。(2)由于陕西、内蒙古、山西、山东、河南在2007、2013和2016年的比重超过5%,为此单独列出。其中,陕西和内蒙古在2013年和2016年的比重明显高于2007年,置于对角线上方;而山西、山东和河南的比重则呈下降趋势,因此置于对角线下方[27,28,29,30]。

Fig. 2 Changes of provincial shares of coal production from 2007 to 2016

图3 各省“十三五”和“十四五”期间GDP增速（单位：%）

Fig. 3 Provincial GDP growth rates in 13th Five-Year Plan period and 14th Five-Year Plan period (unit: %)

表1 各省“十四五”末第三产业结构

Table 1 Provincial tertiary industry in the end of the14th Five-Year Plan %

图4 2025年区域能源消费总量

Fig. 4 Regional energy consumption by province in 2025

图5 各省碳排放总量

Fig. 5 Carbon emissions by province

图6 各省“十三五”和“十四五”时期碳强度年均降幅（单位：%）

Fig. 6 Annual change of carbon intensity during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plan (unit: %)

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“十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析

Economic development, energy demand and carbon emission prospects of China’s provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan—an application of CMRCGE model

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