气候变化研究进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (6): 561-570.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.047

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天津碳交易试点的经济环境影响评估研究——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO2

刘宇1, 温丹辉2, 王毅1, 孙振清2   

  1. 1中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190;
    2天津科技大学经济管理学院,天津300222
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-09 修回日期:2016-07-27 出版日期:2016-11-30 发布日期:2016-11-30
  • 通讯作者: 刘宇 E-mail:liuyu@casipm.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金;国家科技部重点基础研究发展计划973项目;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项

Assessment of Impacts of Tianjin Pilot Emission Trading Schemes in China—A CGE-Analysis Using TermCO2 Model

Liu Yu1, Wen Danhui2, Wang Yi1, Sun Zhenqing2   

  1. 1 Institutes of Science and Development , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
    2 College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222, China
  • Received:2016-03-09 Revised:2016-07-27 Online:2016-11-30 Published:2016-11-30
  • Contact: Yu Liu E-mail:liuyu@casipm.ac.cn

摘要:

本文依据天津碳交易试点制度要素设置情景,模拟其对全市的经济环境影响,并深入分析行业以及行业之间的相互影响。结果显示:2014年天津碳交易试点将推动碳排放下降0.62%(103万t),均衡碳价格为14.2元/t;全市GDP将轻微下滑0.04%(6.2亿元),GDP对碳减排量的弹性系数为0.07,平均GDP损失为599元/t;42个行业中有41个行业受到负面影响,平均影响为-0.068%。因此,总体而言,天津市碳交易试点的减排效果较明显,而且负面经济影响有限。

关键词: 天津, 碳交易, CGE模型, 经济环境影响

Abstract:

In this paper, scenarios are set strictly according to institutional elements of Tianjin Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) pilot, in order to simulate its impacts on economy and environment of Tianjin, and analyze interactions between industries deeply. Results show that carbon emission decreases by 0.62% (1.03 million tons), with equilibrium carbon price of 14.2 yuan per ton. There is a slight fall of GDP by 0.04% (0.62 billion yuan), while GDP elasticity coefficient of carbon emissions is 0.07. Each ton of carbon causes 599 yuan GDP loss. Forty-one industries among 42 are affected and the average effect is -0.068%. Overall, emission reduction effect of Tianjin ETS pilot is obvious, and its negative economic impact is limited.

Key words: Tianjin, Emission Trading Schemes (ETS), CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, economic and environmental impact

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