关键词: CGE模型, 碳税, GDP, 碳排放

Abstract:

The study simulated the world’s regional economic development and carbon emissions from 2008 to 2050 and set this simulation results as a benchmark. To simulate abatement effect of carbon tax and its impact on the economy, this paper constructed the other three kinds of carbon tax policy. In scenario 1, the carbon tax revenues were used as regional revenue. In this scenario, global warming slowed down and the world’s carbon emissions decreased significantly. At the same time, some regions’ economic development was damaged severely, especially developing countries, such as China, India and Russia. In scenario 2, we distributed the carbon revenues in accordance with the proportion. The world’s carbon emissions fell more slightly in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, while the regional economy got better development. The carbon tax rate grew with time in scenario 3 and the control effect of carbon tax policy on global warming was more significant than other scenarios. The economies of regions, especially in developing regions, got more rapid growth. In addition, the carbon tax revenues using to improve regional technology promoted and upgraded the industry construct. In conclusion, coordinated policies of carbon tax policy and technical progress, which balance the regional economies, are a kind of effective and feasible global climate governance policy.

Key words: Computable General Equilibrium model, carbon tax, Gross Domestic Product, carbon emission