气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4): 235-239.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.04.001

• IPCC第五次评估报告WGII专栏 •    下一篇

气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知

谢立勇1,李 悦1,徐玉秀1,赵 迅1,宋艳玲2,姜 彤2,林而达3   

  1. 1 沈阳农业大学农学院,沈阳 110866
    2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
    3 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-14 修回日期:2014-06-05 出版日期:2014-07-30 发布日期:2014-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 谢立勇 E-mail:xly0910@163.com

Updated Understanding on the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production and Food Security

Xie Liyong1, Li Yue1, Xu Yuxiu1, Zhao Xun1, Song Yanling2, Jiang Tong2, Lin Erda3   

  1. 1 College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China 
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2014-02-14 Revised:2014-06-05 Online:2014-07-30 Published:2014-07-30

摘要: IPCC第二工作组在第五次评估报告中客观而审慎地评估了气候变化已经发生和潜在的影响、各个领域与区域的敏感性和脆弱性。针对农业生产与粮食安全,报告表明,气候变化对全球大部分地区作物、畜牧、渔业产生了影响,且负面影响更普遍;不仅影响到生产过程,也影响到非生产系统因素,但这些影响存在区域差异。极端事件(如极端高温)对作物产量、品质及市场价格的负面影响明显。大气中CO2浓度增高有利于作物产量提高,但是与温度、臭氧以及水分利用、病虫草害等协同效应仍然不明确。增强适应可以克服增温对农业的负面影响,并减少粮食损失。关于气候变化对粮食安全非生产系统因素的影响及如何开展适应,还需要搜集更多的证据。

关键词: IPCC第二工作组, 第五次评估报告, 气候变化, 农业生产, 粮食安全

Abstract: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was launched in March 2014. This report summarizes the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on impacts, sensitivity and vulnerability. The report shows, focusing to food production and food security, the effects of climate change on crop, animals and fishery are evident in most regions of the world. Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. The effects act on not only production process, but also non-production elements, such as food access, utilization, and price stability, which varies among different regions. Studies have documented a large negative sensitivity of crop yields to extreme daytime temperatures. Evidence since AR4 confirms the stimulatory effects of CO2 in most cases and the damaging effects of elevated tropospheric ozone on crop yields. More adaptation is helpful to overcome the negative effect of temperature increasing, and reduce food losses. More observational evidence is needed on the effectiveness of adaptation at all levels of the food system.

Key words: IPCC WGII, Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), climate change, food production, food security

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