气候变化对宁波四明山人体舒适度的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.167

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用宁波四明山区域气象观测站逐日和逐小时气象要素观测资料,分析该区域气候条件,并以舒适度指标等评估其气候生态。结果表明,1961—2017年四明山区域气温持续上升,降水增多,日降水峰值集中在16—18时且未出现明显变化,小风日数增多,气候适宜日数明显增加。气温是影响该区域人体舒适度的主因,其次是相对湿度和风;春秋舒适日数多,气候温润,日晴夜雨特征明显;夏季凉爽,是理想的避暑休闲胜地;年舒适时数高山与平原相近,但季节差异明显,夏季高山地区非常舒适,其他三季平原更舒适。区域气候模式结果显示,未来四明山区域气温继续维持升高趋势,降水有所增加,极端高温事件增多,极端低温事件减少,人体舒适日数呈减少趋势,春、秋季略增加,夏季减少明显。

关键词: 四明山区域, 气候变化, 生态环境, 人体舒适度

Abstract:

Based on daily and hourly monitoring data of meteorological elements in the region of the Siming Mountains in Ningbo city, its climatic conditions were analyzed, and its ecoclimatic advantages were evaluated using comfort index of human body. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2017, the temperature in the region has continued to rise, the precipitation has increased, the daily peak of which has been concentrating at 16-18 o’clock without any significant change, the number of small wind days has grown, and the number of climatically comfortable days has increased considerably. Besides, the results also show that temperature is the main contributor to human comfort in the Siming Mountains, followed by relative humidity and wind velocity. In spring and autumn, there is a large number of comfortable days, with warm climate and the characteristic of sunny day and rainy night; in cool summer, it is an ideal summer resort. The annual comfort hour in the high altitude area is similar to that in the plain area, but the seasonal differences are obvious. The high altitude area is more comfortable in the summer, while the plain area is better in the rest of the year. In addition, according to the results of regional climate models, the temperature in the Siming Mountains tends to continue to increase, as well as the precipitation and the number of extreme high temperature events, while the number of extreme low temperature events is prone to decrease, combined with declined climatically comfortable days and significantly less of that in the summer but more of that in spring and autumn.

Key words: The Siming Mountains, Climate changes, Ecological environment, Human comfort

黄鹤楼,邹旭恺,丁烨毅,陈鲜艳,石英,肖风劲. 气候变化对宁波四明山人体舒适度的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(3): 316-324.

He-Lou HUANG,Xu-Kai ZOU,Ye-Yi DING,Xian-Yan CHEN,Ying SHI,Feng-Jin XIAO. The impact of climate change on human comfort in the Siming Mountains in Ningbo, China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(3): 316-324.

图/表 14

图1 四明山区域气象观测站点分布

Fig. 1 The distribution of 11 sites over the Siming Mountains

表1 人体舒适度指标等级

Table 1 Human comfort index and levels

图2 四明山区域年平均、最高、最低气温随海拔高度的变化

Fig. 2 The vertical profiles of annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures in the Siming Mountains

表2 四明山区域不同海拔高度气象代表站夏季平均气温

Table 2 Summer mean temperature of meteorological stations at different altitudes in the Siming Mountains

图3 四明山区域5—8月高温日数随海拔高度的变化

Fig. 3 The vertical profiles of monthly high temperature days (the number of days with the max temperature higher than 35℃) from May to August in the Siming Mountains

图4 四明山区域不同海拔高度代表站降水量的日变化

Fig. 4 Diurnal variation of precipitation of stations at different altitudes in the Siming Mountains

图5 1961—2015年四明山区域历年降水量逐时分布

Fig. 5 Diurnal variations of precipitation over the years from 1961 to 2015 in the Siming Mountains

图6 四明山区域人体舒适日数的逐月变化

Fig. 6 Inter-monthly variation of suitable days in the Siming Mountains

表3 海拔高度和气象要素的变化对舒适时数占比的影响

Table 3 Effects of altitude and meteorological factors on the percentage of suitable hours

图7 未来四明山区域升温趋势（相对于1986—2005年）

Fig. 7 Warming trend in the Siming Mountains (relative to the period of 1986-2005)

图8 未来四明山区域极端气温日数变化趋势（相对于1986—2005年）

Fig. 8 Trend of extreme temperature days in the Siming Mountains (relative to the period of 1986-2005)

图9 未来四明山区域降水相对于1986—2005年变化趋势

Fig. 9 Trend of precipitation relative to the period of 1986-2005 in the Siming Mountains

图10 未来四明山区域极端降水日数相对于1986—2005年变化趋势

Fig. 10 Trend of extreme precipitation days relative to the period of 1986-2005 in the Siming Mountains

图11 四明山区域人体舒适日数未来变化趋势

Fig. 11 Future trend of suitable days in the Siming Mountains

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