气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 491-504.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.111

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

高分辨率区域气候变化降尺度数据对京津冀地区高温GDP和人口暴露度的集合预估

李柔珂1,2(), 韩振宇1(), 徐影1, 石英1, 吴佳1   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
    2 中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 西安 710075
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-16 修回日期:2019-07-18 出版日期:2020-07-30 发布日期:2020-08-05
  • 通讯作者: 韩振宇
  • 作者简介:李柔珂,女,助理研究员, lirk@cma.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606301,2017YFA0605004);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201925);中国气象局气候研究开放实验;室开放课题青年基金

An ensemble projection of GDP and population exposure to high temperature events over Jing-Jin-Ji district based on high resolution combined dynamical and statistical downscaling datasets

LI Rou-Ke1,2(), HAN Zhen-Yu1(), XU Ying1, SHI Ying1, WU Jia1   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    2 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China
  • Received:2019-05-16 Revised:2019-07-18 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-05
  • Contact: HAN Zhen-Yu

摘要:

基于RCP4.5(中等温室气体排放)情景下5个全球模式模拟结果的降尺度数据,及SSP2社会经济路径下的GDP和人口密度数据,对21世纪京津冀地区(北京、天津和河北的统称)未来2021—2040年(近期)、2046—2065年(中期)、2080—2099年(末期)的高温GDP和人口暴露度进行多模式集合预估。结果表明:未来京津冀地区热事件将增加,21世纪末期京津冀东南部平原和沿海地区的闷热事件、中部平原地区的高温事件出现频率明显增加。GDP和人口暴露度大值区主要分布在北京、天津、保定、石家庄和邯郸等经济发达、交通便利、人口聚集的城市及其周边地区。21世纪京津冀地区的GDP暴露度区域平均值持续增加,21世纪末期多年平均值约为参照时段的58.9倍;各城市的区域平均值也表现出一致增加。京津冀地区人口暴露度区域平均值在21世纪中期达到最大,为参照时段的2.3倍;北京、秦皇岛、张家口、承德和唐山人口暴露度区域平均值将持续增长,其他城市人口暴露度区域平均值在21世纪中期达到最大。GDP暴露度的变化主要取决于非线性因子,且其贡献率随时间逐渐增加,到21世纪末期可达70.9%。21世纪近期和中期人口暴露度的变化主要取决于非线性因子,气候因子在末期占主导地位。

关键词: 区域模式, 气候变化, 高温, 暴露度, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

Future changes of GDP and population exposure to high temperature in the 21st century over Jing-Jin-Ji district were investigated based on the high resolution (6.25 km) combined statistical and dynamical downscaling datasets under RCP4.5 scenario, as well as the population and GDP data under SSP2. Results show that, the high resolution downscaling projection could well reproduce the hazard distributions of high temperature events in the Jing-Jin-Ji district. At the end of the 21st century, the significantly increased frequency of sultry events over the southeastern plain and coastal areas of Jing-Jin-Ji district will be found, so will hot events in the midland of Hebei. The areas with high population and GDP exposure are mainly located in cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Handan etc., who are featured by developed economy, convenient transportation and large population, and their surrounding areas. In the 21st century, the increasing GDP exposure over Jing-Jin-Ji district can also be found. The exposure average by the end of the 21st century is about 58.9 times of the reference period. All the cities also present a consistent increase. In the mid-21st century, the regional average of population exposure in Jing-Jin-Ji district will reach its maximum value as 2.3 times that of the reference period. But the average population exposure in Beijing, Zhangjiakou, Chengde and Tangshan will grow continuously in the 21st century. The change of GDP exposure mainly subjects to non-linear factors, and the contribution rate increases with time reaching 70.9% at the end of the 21st century. While the change of population exposure in the near and medium term of the 21st century mainly subjects to non-linear factors. The contribution rate of climate factors increases with time, reaching a dominant position at the end of the 21st century.

Key words: Regional climate model, Climate change, High temperature, Exposure, Jing-Jin-Ji district

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