气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4): 240-245.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.04.002

• IPCC第五次评估报告WGII专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

对IPCC第五次评估报告中有关淡水资源相关结论的解读

翟建青1,2,占明锦3,4,5,苏布达1,6,姜 彤1,2   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081;
    2 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044;
    3 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;
    4 中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
    5 江西省气候中心,南昌 330046;
     6 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-12 修回日期:2014-04-17 出版日期:2014-07-30 发布日期:2014-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 苏布达 E-mail:subd@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展973计划项目;国家自然科学基金;国家科技合作与交流专项

The Interpretation of Freshwater Resources in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC

Zhai Jianqing1, 2, Zhan Mingjin3, 4, 5, Su Buda1, 6, Jiang Tong1, 2   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 
    3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 
    4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 
    5 Climate Center of Jiangxi, Nanchang 330046, China; 
    6 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi 830011, China
     
  • Received:2014-02-12 Revised:2014-04-17 Online:2014-07-30 Published:2014-07-30
  • Contact: Su Buda E-mail:subd@cma.gov.cn

摘要: IPCC第五次评估报告指出,与淡水资源相关的气候变化风险随着温室气体浓度增加而显著增加。气候变化已经导致区域降水发生显著变化;多年冻土、冰川持续萎缩,积雪不断减少;降雪区春季最大径流量逐渐提前,夏季干旱不断加剧。预估结果表明:21世纪温室气体排放将加剧淡水资源相关风险。如显著减少亚热带干旱地区的地表水和地下水资源,加剧行业之间用水竞争;极端事件(如极端降水)明显影响原水水质,威胁用水安全;气候变化同时将导致农业灌溉用水量增加、能源生产效率降低等不利影响。报告指出需采取硬性基础设施建设和软性制度措施建设相结合的适应措施,加强水资源管理,克服气候变化的负面影响,减少损失。

关键词: 淡水资源, 影响, 适应, 脆弱性, IPCC第五次评估报告, 第二工作组

Abstract: The IPCC Working Group II (WGII) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) reported that freshwater-related risks of climate change increased significantly with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The observed hydrological changes due to climate change were assessed including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, permafrost, glaciers, stream flow and groundwater etc. Meanwhile, the projected hydrological changes and freshwater-related impacts, vulnerabilities and risks due to climate change were assessed. It is necessary to take adaptive measures and implement risk management that would exploit the positive impacts and impair the negative impacts of climate change.

Key words: freshwater resources, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilities, IPCC AR5, WGII

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