气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2): 133-142.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.275

• 海洋和冰冻圈变化与影响最新认知专栏 •    下一篇

IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示

王朋岭1,黄磊1,巢清尘1(),袁佳双2,陈超2   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
    2 中国气象局,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-19 修回日期:2019-12-27 出版日期:2020-03-30 发布日期:2020-04-01
  • 通讯作者: 巢清尘 E-mail:chaoqc@cma.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:王朋岭,男,高级工程师,wangpl@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1509001);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GHYH201406016);第四次气候变化国家评估报告“科学认知”

The main content and insights of IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC)

WANG Peng-Ling1,HUANG Lei1,CHAO Qing-Chen1(),YUAN Jia-Shuang2,CHEN Chao2   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2019-11-19 Revised:2019-12-27 Online:2020-03-30 Published:2020-04-01
  • Contact: Qing-Chen CHAO E-mail:chaoqc@cma.gov.cn

摘要:

2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC),这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括:气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。

关键词: 气候变化, 海洋, 冰冻圈, 影响, 风险, 应对选择

Abstract:

In September 2019, IPCC released the special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC), as the third special report of the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle, and the IPCC’s first assessment report on the theme of ocean and cryosphere in high mountain areas and polar regions. SROCC provides comprehensive assessments on the physical changes of the ocean and cryosphere in the context of climate change and worldwide impacts and risks, the core findings are as follows: global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, which projected to continue, and high mountain areas and polar regions will face increased disaster risks. Global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970, and the ocean is projected to unprecedented conditions with increased temperature and further acidification, which has been impacting marine biodiversity and threatening marine ecosystem services and human systems. Global mean sea level is rising, with acceleration in recent decades, and projected to continue to rise in the coming hundreds of years, which will worsen the risk of coastal ecosystems, coasts and communities together with frequent occurrence of extreme sea level events. SROCC calls for urgent, active, coordinated and enduring adaptation and mitigation actions that are keys to effectively addressing ocean and cryospheric changes, achieving climate resilient development pathways and sustainable development goals. It is recommended to attach great importance to long-term and irreversible impacts of ocean and cryosphere in climate system change, strengthen the urgency of tackling climate change, promote adaptive capabilities in the terrestrial cryosphere and coastal areas over China, and strengthen interdisciplinary collaborative innovation to continuously enhance China’s international influences and sci-tech support in related fields, achieving the international “big science” plan led by China.

Key words: Climate change, Ocean, Cryosphere, Impacts, Risk, Response options

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