梅里雪山地区气温和降水的时空分异及海拔效应

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.207

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

梅里雪山地区是中国地形起伏最大的地区之一,其气候环境复杂多变、空间分异特征显著,对区域气温和降水的系统分析有助于揭示区域内冰川变化的原因和水文循环过程。站点观测的缺乏和再分析资料的低空间分辨率是精细刻画该地区气象条件的主要制约因素。研究中首先基于有限站点观测,采用尺度因子法和月尺度的回归校正对ERA5-Land产品进行校准;然后,考虑气温和降水的海拔效应,采用Anusplin插值的方式对校准后的结果进行统计降尺度。最终获得了梅里雪山地区近30年(1990—2020年）1 km空间分辨率的气温、降水数据,并以此分析了这一地区降水、气温的时空异质性及其在不同海拔梯度上的表现特征。结果表明,区域气温以0.15℃/(10 a)的速率呈显著上升趋势,且各季节升温的幅度及分布范围各异;降水则以-41.19 mm/(10 a)的速率呈显著下降趋势,整个区域呈“变暖变干”的倾向。区域增温具有明显的海拔依赖性,海拔低于4000 m和>5000 m时,增温不随海拔变化而变化,当海拔处于4000~5000 m时,增温幅度随海拔升高而增加。区域降水也具有显著的海拔梯度效应,当海拔<5000 m时,西坡降水随海拔的升高而减少,当超过该海拔后降水随海拔升高而增加;东坡降水始终随海拔升高而增加。梅里雪山气候变化的时空分异特征是大气环流背景和复杂地理环境共同作用的结果。区域持续的变暖及降水的减少可能会进一步加重该区冰川水资源的流失。

关键词: 梅里雪山, 气温, 降水, 统计降尺度, 时空特征, 海拔梯度

Abstract:

The Meili Snow Mountains (MLSM) is characterized as high topographic relief and diversified climate patterns in Southwest China. Characterizing spatial-temporal changes of temperature and precipitation is helpful in the quantification of glacier changes and hydrological process in the region. The lack of observations and low spatial resolution in reanalysis data are the main constraints to comprehensively characterize the meteorological conditions in this area. In this study, the bias corrected and downscaled ERA5-Land product with 1 km resolution was applied to explore the heterogeneity and altitudinal effect in precipitation and temperature changes during 1990-2020. Results are as follows. There is a significant upward trend at a rate of 0.15℃ / (10 a) in air temperature with spatial and seasonal differences. Precipitation shows a significant downward trend at a rate of -41.19 mm/(10 a). The whole area has a tendency becoming “warming and drying”. The warming is not obvious in areas when the altitude is below 4000 m or above 5000 m, in-between, the warming is elevation dependent. Precipitation also has a significant altitudinal gradient. When the altitude is lower than 5000 m, the precipitation on the west slope decreases with the increase of altitude, but increases with the increase of altitude when the altitude is above 5000 m. Precipitation on the eastern slope increases with elevation from 2000 m to 6000 m. The atmospheric circulation background and complex geographical environment together determine the spatio-temporal differentiation of climate change in MLSM. Continued warming and reduction of precipitation may further aggravate the loss of water resources and accelerate glacial retreat in this area.

Key words: Meili Snow Mountains (MLSM), Temperature, Precipitation, Statistical downscaling, Spatio-temporal characteristic, Elevation gradient

缪文飞, 刘时银, 朱钰, 段仕美, 韩丰泽. 梅里雪山地区气温和降水的时空分异及海拔效应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 328-342.

MIAO Wen-Fei, LIU Shi-Yin, ZHU Yu, DUAN Shi-Mei, HAN Feng-Ze. Spatio-temporal differentiation and altitude dependence of temperature and precipitation in Meili Snow Mountains[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 328-342.

图/表 13

图1 研究区概况图(a)研究区周边气象站点及泰森多边形,(b)梅里雪山地形,(c)明永冰川流域雨量筒位置及降水与海拔关系注：(c)图中红色数字1、2、3为雨量筒编号;编号后括号内数字为雨量筒高程（m）。

Fig. 1 Geographical settings of study area. (a) Weather stations and Thiessen polygon around the study area, (b) Meili Snow Mountains Region (MLSM), (c) location of rain gauge and relationship between precipitation and altitude in Mingyong Glacier basin

表1 LRBC（基于线性回归校正）校正前后ERA5-Land月气温误差对比

Table 1 Comparison of ERA5-Land monthly temperature errors pre- and post-calibration by LRBC

图2 德钦站所在ERA5-Land格点降水校正前后分量特征(a)趋势项,(b)季节项,(c)余项

Fig. 2 The component characteristics of ERA5-Land grid before and after precipitation correction at Deqin station. (a) Trend items, (b) seasonal items, (c) residual items

表2 尺度因子法校正前后ERA5-Land月降水误差对比

Table 2 Comparison of ERA5-Land monthly precipitation errors pre- and post-calibration by scale factor

表3 降尺度结果在不同时间尺度误差对比

Table 3 Error comparison of downscaling results at different time scales

表4 1990—2020年梅里雪山地区四季及年际气温、降水变化率

Table 4 Trends of seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation in MLSM during 1990-2020

图3 1990—2020年梅里雪山地区春(a)、夏(b)、秋(c)、冬(d)四季及年均(e)气温变化空间分布及全区年均气温变化曲线(f) 注：(a)~(e)图横线阴影区域表示通过0.05显著性检验的地区;(f)图绿色竖线表示1998—2012年增温停滞期间。

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of trends of seasonal and annual air temperature in MLSM during 1990-2020 spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c), winter (d), annual average (e), and variation of regional annual average air temperature (f)

图4 1990—2020年梅里雪山地区降水变化趋势空间分布(a)及月降水分布(b) 注：(a)图中横线阴影区域表示通过0.05的显著性检验地区。

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of precipitation trends (a) and monthly precipitation distribution (b) in MLSM during 1990-2020

图5 梅里雪山地区不同区域在1990—2020年(a)和增温停滞期间（1998—2012年,b）气温变化率的海拔分布

Fig. 5 Altitude distribution of temperature change rates in MLSM different regions during 1990-2020 (a) and the hiatus period (1998-2012, b)

图6 梅里雪山地区季风期(a)和非季风期(b)东、西坡降水海拔梯度特征

Fig. 6 Characteristics of precipitation with elevation gradient on west and east slopes of MLSM during monsoon period (a) and non-monsoon period (b)

表5 梅里雪山地区季风期和非季风期不同区域降水的海拔梯度变率

Table 5 Elevation gradient variability of precipitation in different regions of MLSM during monsoon and non-monsoon periods mm/(100m)

图7 1990—2020年大气环流变化(a) 季风期500 hPa高度场,(b) 500 hPa比湿场,(c) 850 hPa气温场,(d) 200 hPa纬向风场注：图中黑点填充区表示通过0.05显著性检验的地区,蓝色方框为研究区所在位置。

Fig. 7 Atmospheric circulation changes during 1990-2020. (a) 500 hPa heights during monsoon period, (b) 500 hPa specific humidity, (c) 850 hPa temperature, (d) 200 hPa westward wind

图8 梅里雪山地区不同海拔高度带内土地覆盖

Fig. 8 MLSM land cover in different elevations

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