沿海地区复合洪水危险性研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.210

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 317-328.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.210

沿海地区复合洪水危险性研究进展

方佳毅¹^,²^,³(), 殷杰¹^,²^,³, 石先武⁴, 方建⁵, 杜士强⁶, 刘敏¹^,²^,³

1 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200241
2 华东师范大学地理科学学院, 上海 200241
3 华东师范大学崇明生态研究院, 上海 202162
4 自然资源部海洋减灾中心,北京 100194
5 华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉 430079
6 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院, 上海 200234

收稿日期:2020-09-14 修回日期:2020-11-15 出版日期:2021-05-30 发布日期:2021-06-01
作者简介:方佳毅,女,助理研究员, jyfang822@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学青年科学基金项目(42001096);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1503001);上海市科研计划项目(19YF1413700);博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M651429)

A review of compound flood hazard research in coastal areas

FANG Jia-Yi¹^,²^,³(), YIN Jie¹^,²^,³, SHI Xian-Wu⁴, FANG Jian⁵, DU Shi-Qiang⁶, LIU Min¹^,²^,³

1 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
2 School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
3 Institute of Eco-Chongming, East China Normal University, Shanghai 202162, China
4 National Hazard Marine Mitigation Service, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100194, China
5 College of Urban and Environmental Science, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
6 School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China

Received:2020-09-14 Revised:2020-11-15 Online:2021-05-30 Published:2021-06-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

沿海地区频繁遭受洪水灾害,往往并非单一灾种驱动,而是多种致灾因子相互影响的综合结果。文中梳理了沿海地区复合洪水的主要驱动机理,归纳了复合洪水危险性研究中统计模型和动力数值模型两类主要研究方法,并分别阐述了近年来主要进展。复合洪水是极端高潮位（包括天文潮位、风暴潮和海浪)、河流洪水和强降水过程的两两组合或者是三者同时发生。基于统计模型的复合洪水危险性研究主要致力于各致灾变量的关联性分析和联合概率建模,可较好理解大尺度上复合洪水的时空变化,以及和气候因素之间的关系,其研究难点和未来趋势是构建非一致假设下二维以上的复合洪水统计模型。基于水动力数值模型的复合洪水淹没模拟需要水文、海洋和水力等多个模型耦合以及大气气象要素（台风过程、风场、气压场）作为重要边界条件,建模过程较复杂,计算耗时长,对计算水平要求高,但可较好地刻画复合洪水的演变过程,并便于未来情景分析。未来需要重视沿海地区复合洪水致灾成害机理的研究。在气象海洋预报业务服务方面,建议加强沿海地区复合洪水监测与预警技术方法研究,对沿海地区复合洪水过程全方面多角度监测,进行动力框架改进、物理过程参数化优化和资料同化,提高模式网格分辨率,优化集合预报方案。最后,亟需探究未来气候变化及人类活动对复合洪水危险性的综合影响。

关键词: 复合洪水, 沿海地区, 风暴潮, 强降水, 河流洪水

Abstract:

Coastal areas frequently suffer from flood disasters, which is not caused by a single hazard, but a combination and interaction of multi-hazards. This study sorted out the definitions and mechanisms of compound flood, and systematically summarized the progress of compound flood research from two aspects: statistical model and dynamic numerical model. Compound flood arises from two or three of oceanographic (storm surge, tides, and waves), riverine/fluvial, and pluvial (precipitation leading to direct surface runoff) sources. Studies based on the statistical modeling focus on assessment of joint correlation for multi-variates. It can better understand the spatial and temporal variation of compound flood at a large scale, as well as their relationship with climate factors. The difficulties and future research trends are to construct the nonstationary statistical model of two and more hazards under a changing environment. Studies based on dynamic numerical models require the coupling of hydrology, oceanology, and hydraulic models with meteorological components (tropical cyclones, wind field, pressure field) as important boundary conditions. The modeling process is complex, time-consuming, and requires high computation, but it can clearly describe the evolution process of compound floods, and can be helpful for future scenario analysis. In the future, more attention should be paid to the mechanism of compound flooding in coastal low-lying areas. It is necessary to strengthen the research of long time series model simulation products in combination with climate change factors in the risk assessment of climate change and extreme complex events. In the service of the meteorological and marine forecast, it is proposed to strengthen the research on monitoring and early warning technique, as well as improvement of the dynamic framework, parameterization optimization of physical process, data assimilation, improvement of pattern grid resolution, and optimization of the ensemble prediction scheme. Under the background of global climate change and continuous urbanization, it is urgent to assess the integrated risk of compound flood in coastal areas by considering anthropogenic and climatic factors.

Key words: Compound flood, Coastal areas, Storm surge, Heavy precipitation, Riverine flood

方佳毅, 殷杰, 石先武, 方建, 杜士强, 刘敏. 沿海地区复合洪水危险性研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 317-328.

FANG Jia-Yi, YIN Jie, SHI Xian-Wu, FANG Jian, DU Shi-Qiang, LIU Min. A review of compound flood hazard research in coastal areas[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 317-328.

图/表 5

图1 沿海地区复合海岸洪水示意图

Fig. 1 Illustration of compound flood in coastal areas

表1 沿海地区复合洪水统计模型研究的相关案例

Table 1 Examples of existing compound flooding research based on statistical models in coastal areas

图2 二维复合洪水研究中致灾情景组合方式[54] 注：灰色区域为致灾组合,U1和U2分别表示单变量。

Fig. 2 Hazard scenarios (grey areas) under bivariate flood events[54]

表2 基于水力学的洪水淹没模型分类归纳

Table 2 Classification of floodplain modelling based on hydraulic models

图3 单向性复合洪水模拟流程图

Fig. 3 Flowchart of one-way coupled compound flood inundation modelling (a) represented by a hydrological model, (b) represented by an oceanology model, (c) represented by a hydraulic mode

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沿海地区复合洪水危险性研究进展

A review of compound flood hazard research in coastal areas

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