中巴经济走廊极端低温事件风险评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.250

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

危险性、暴露度、脆弱性是极端低温事件风险评估的关键因素。基于1961—2015年中巴经济走廊地区逐日最低气温、人口和耕地等数据,选取极端低温事件强度、频次、持续时间,人口密度,耕地面积占比,植被覆盖度,数字高程模型（DEM),脆弱人口比重和性别比重9个指标,采用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标组合权重,对中巴经济走廊地区极端低温事件进行风险评估,实现了中巴经济走廊极端低温事件不同风险等级（低、较低、中、较高、高风险）的区划。研究表明,中巴经济走廊内极端低温事件风险分布具有显著的空间差异,极端低温事件风险受极端低温事件强度、人口密度和地形影响较大。区域内绝大部分地区属于低风险地区,高风险地区有巴基斯坦的阿扎德克什米尔地区、吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区、开普省地区、联邦直辖部落地区和中国的喀什地区。其中,阿扎德克什米尔高风险面积占比最高（约35%),联邦直辖部落地区较高风险面积占比最高（约7.7%),吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区中风险地区面积占比最高（约24.6%);中风险地区占比超过10%的还有开普省（12.5%)、阿扎德克什米尔（20%)、联邦直辖部落地区（10.2%)、中国喀什地区（14.3%)。评估结果与历史灾情吻合,可为区域气象灾害风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。

关键词: 中巴经济走廊, 极端低温事件, 组合权重, 风险评估

Abstract:

Hazard, exposure and vulnerability are the key factors in the risk assessment of extreme low temperature events. Based on the daily minimum temperature, population and cultivated land in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for the period 1961-2015, nine indices including the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme low temperature events, population density, proportion of cultivated land area, vegetation fraction, digital elevation model (DEM), proportion of vulnerable population and gender proportion are selected, and the combination weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. The risk assessment of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC has realized the zoning of different risk levels (low, moderately low, moderate, moderately high, high risk) of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC. The results show that there are significant spatial differences in the risk distribution of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC. The risk of extreme low temperature events is greatly affected by the intensity of extreme low temperature events, population density and terrain. Most areas in the region belong to low-risk areas, but include Pakistan’s Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashgar region of China belong to high-risk areas; Among them, the high-risk area in Azad Kashmir accounts for about 35%, and the moderately high risk area in FATA accounts for about 7.7%. In the Gilgit-Baltistan region, the area of moderate risk areas accounts for the highest proportion of about 24.6%. More than 10% of moderate risk areas are Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (12.5%), Azad Kashmir (20%), Kashgar region (14.3%) and FATA (10.2%). The results are consistent with the historical disasters, which can provide reference for regional meteorological disaster risk assessment and disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Extreme low temperature events, Combined weight, Risk assessment

李涛, 陶辉, 陈金雨. 中巴经济走廊极端低温事件风险评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 343-354.

LI Tao, TAO Hui, CHEN Jin-Yu. Risk assessment of extreme low temperature events over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 343-354.

图/表 10

图1 中巴经济走廊地区地理位置

Fig. 1 Geographical location of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

图2 中巴经济走廊极端低温阈值空间分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of extreme low temperature thresholds in CPEC

表1 极端低温事件风险评估指数的指标体系

Table 1 Risk index system of extreme low temperature events

表2 极端低温事件风险指标权重

Table 2 Weight of extreme low temperature event risk index

表3 极端低温事件风险评估分级标准

Table 3 Classification standard of extreme low temperature event risk assessment

图3 中巴经济走廊危险性指数空间分布

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of hazard index of CPEC

图4 中巴经济走廊暴露度指数空间分布

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of exposure index of CPEC

图5 中巴经济走廊脆弱性指数空间分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of vulnerability index of CPEC

图6 中巴经济走廊极端低温风险等级空间分布

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of extreme low temperature risk in CPEC

图7 中巴经济走廊及各行政单元极端低温事件不同风险区所占面积比例

Fig. 7 Area proportion of extreme low temperature events at different risk levels for different administrative units in CPEC

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