大气污染物与温室气体减排协同效应评估方法及应用

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.206

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 268-278.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.206

• 减污降碳协同增效专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

大气污染物与温室气体减排协同效应评估方法及应用

高庆先¹(), 高文欧², 马占云¹(), 唐甲洁³, 付加锋¹, 李迎新¹, 任佳雪⁴

1 中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012
2 北京中创碳投教育公司,北京 100007
3 兰州中心气象台,兰州 730020
4 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048

收稿日期:2020-09-08 修回日期:2020-10-30 出版日期:2021-05-30 发布日期:2021-06-01
通讯作者: 马占云
作者简介:高庆先,男,研究员, gaoqx@craes.org.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507701);“碳排放达峰行动”项目编码(14404200000020Z001);“十四五”非二氧化碳温室气体排放管控研(144026000000190006);“一带一路”国家温室气体和污染物协同控制研究(2019-434)

The synergy effect assessment method and its application for air pollutants and greenhouse gases reduction

GAO Qing-Xian¹(), GAO Wen-Ou², MA Zhan-Yun¹(), TANG Jia-Jie³, FU Jia-Feng¹, LI Ying-Xin¹, REN Jia-Xue⁴

1 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
2 Beijing Zhongchuang Carbon Investment Education Company, Beijing 100007, China
3 Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, China
4 Department of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China

Received:2020-09-08 Revised:2020-10-30 Online:2021-05-30 Published:2021-06-01
Contact: MA Zhan-Yun

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于二维四象限图构建了一个量化大气污染控制和温室气体减排协同效应的评估指标,建立了量化评估协同效应方法;针对《大气污染防治行动计划》评估中能源结构调整和产业结构调整措施进行了协同效应量化实施效果评估。结果显示：所有实施的减排污染物的措施均有正的CO₂减排协同效应,应该积极鼓励和推荐。实现CO₂和SO₂减排最大协同效应的措施是减少煤炭消费总量;此外,电力替代煤炭和油品、天然气替代燃煤等也可以实现较大的SO₂减排,但其CO₂的减排效果相对较小;淘汰小型燃煤锅炉可以实现较高的NO₂和CO₂减排;淘汰落后产能和化解过剩产能等也有较高的协同效应;SO₂和CO₂协同效应评估指数最高的是能源消耗下降措施,其次是燃料替代措施;NO₂和CO₂协同效应评估指数最高的是淘汰燃煤锅炉措施,其次是天然气替代燃煤措施;烟尘和CO₂协同效应评估指数最大的是燃煤替代措施,其次是能源消耗下降措施。2013—2017年《大气污染防治行动计划》能源结构调整和产业结构调整部分措施的实施,实现了SO₂减排2264.78万t,NO₂减排656.1万t,烟尘减排469.18万t,同时实现了CO₂减排14.62亿t,具有显著的正向协同效应。

关键词: 大气污染物, 温室气体, 协同效应, 评估方法, 评估指数

Abstract:

This study built an evaluation index to quantify the synergistic effect of air pollution control and greenhouse gas emission reduction based on the two-digit four-quadrant map, and established a method to quantify the synergistic effect, sorting out and giving the calculation methods for the emission of major pollutants such as fuel combustion, cement production, and coal-fired power plants, and determining the emission factors and carbon dioxide emission factors of different fuel types and processes. For the evaluation of the “Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan”, the energy structure adjustment and industrial structure adjustment measures were evaluated for the quantified implementation effect of synergy. The results are as follows. The CO₂ emission reduction synergistic effect of all implemented measures to reduce pollutants has a positive synergistic effect, which belongs to pollution emission reduction measures that should be actively encouraged and recommended. The measure to achieve the maximum synergy of CO₂ and SO₂ is to reduce the total coal consumption. In addition, the replacement of coal and oil by electricity, and the replacement of coal by natural gas can also achieve greater SO₂ emission reductions, but their CO₂ emission reductions are relatively small. Eliminating small-scale coal-fired boilers can achieve higher NO₂ and CO₂ emission reduction; eliminating outdated production capacity and dissolving excess capacity also have high synergy effects. The measure of energy consumption reduction has the highest SO₂ and CO₂ synergy evaluation index, followed by fuel substitution measures; the measure of eliminating coal-fired boilers has the highest NO₂ and CO₂ synergy evaluation index, followed by natural gas substitution of coal-fired measures; coal-fired alternative measures has the largest soot and CO₂ synergy evaluation index, followed by energy consumption reduction measures. The implementation of some measures for energy structure adjustment and industrial structure adjustment in the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan from 2013 to 2017 achieved a reduction in SO₂ emissions of 22.65×10⁶ t, a reduction in NO₂ emissions of 6.56×10⁶ t, and soot emission reduction of 4.69×10⁶ t, while achieving CO₂ emission reduction of 1.46×10⁹ t, having a significant positive synergistic effect.

Key words: Atmospheric pollutants, Greenhouse gases, Synergistic effects, Assessment methods, Evaluation index

高庆先, 高文欧, 马占云, 唐甲洁, 付加锋, 李迎新, 任佳雪. 大气污染物与温室气体减排协同效应评估方法及应用[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 268-278.

GAO Qing-Xian, GAO Wen-Ou, MA Zhan-Yun, TANG Jia-Jie, FU Jia-Feng, LI Ying-Xin, REN Jia-Xue. The synergy effect assessment method and its application for air pollutants and greenhouse gases reduction[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 268-278.

图/表 5

图1 协同效应评估四象限图

Fig. 1 Four-quadrant diagram of synergy evaluation

表1 主要过程和燃料类型不同污染物的排污系数

Table 1 Pollution coefficients of different pollutants in main processes and fuel types

表2 能源结构调整和产业结构调整污染物与CO2协同效应评估

Table 2 Evaluation of the synergistic effect of pollutants and carbon dioxide in energy structure adjustment and industrial structure adjustment

图2 污染物减排和温室气体减排四象限图

Fig. 2 Four quadrants of pollutant reduction and greenhouse gas reduction

图3 协同效应评估指数

Fig. 3 Synergy evaluation index

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大气污染物与温室气体减排协同效应评估方法及应用

The synergy effect assessment method and its application for air pollutants and greenhouse gases reduction

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