气候变化研究进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (5): 450-456.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.029

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基于国家自主决定贡献的发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求研究

潘寻   

  1. 环境保护部环境保护对外合作中心,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-19 修回日期:2016-04-03 出版日期:2016-09-30 发布日期:2016-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 潘寻 E-mail:cleanspan@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家应对气候变化专项经费项目

Study on the Demands of Climate Finance for Developing Countries Based on Submitted INDC

Pan Xun   

  1. Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2016-02-19 Revised:2016-04-03 Online:2016-09-30 Published:2016-09-30
  • Contact: xun pan E-mail:cleanspan@163.com

摘要:

2015年年底召开的巴黎气候大会开启了全球联合应对气候变化的崭新时代,构建了“各国提交国家自主决定贡献—全球行动盘点—提高行动力度—各国再次提交国家自主决定贡献—最终实现应对气候变化长期目标”的全球气候治理新模式。本研究以目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处收到的160份国家自主决定贡献(涵盖188个缔约方)为对象,对各缔约方的减缓目标进行了分类汇总,并重点对发展中国家资金需求、减排成本和优先投资领域进行了系统梳理。研究结果表明:160份国家自主决定贡献中,有122份明确纳入了资金内容;64份对执行贡献预案提出了具体的资金需求数额;31份对2030年国内温室气体减排量和减排资金需求进行了预估,并基于此测算出发展中国家2030年平均减排成本为22.3美元/t CO2;28个缔约方对国内减缓和适应领域资金需求进行了再分类,减缓和适应总体资金需求比值为1.4。如以目前发达国家缔约方减缓承诺为基准,2030年发展中国家应对气候变化资金需求总量将达到4740亿美元。

关键词: 国家自主决定贡献(INDC), 气候变化, 资金, 减缓

Abstract:

The 21st Conference of Party (COP21) held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC-global stocktake-enhance efforts of actions-all Parties resubmit INDC-finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention”. With 160 INDC copies (covering 188 Parties) that the UNFCCC secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demands, mitigation cost and priority investment fields for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC copies, 122 copies clearly include the financial content; 64 copies propose specific amounts of financial demands for the implementation of INDC; 31 copies pre-estimate domestic amounts and financial demands for greenhouse gas mitigation by 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries by 2030 will have reached up to 22.3 US$/t CO2; 28 Parties reclassify the financial demands for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. The current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries should be used as benchmark, then by 2030 the total amount of financial demands for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$ 474 billion.

Key words: INDC, climate change, finance, mitigation

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