Abstract: Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data at 14 weather stations from 1961 to 2005, the climate change characteristics in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River upstream of Ankang in the past 45 years were analyzed. The correlation between the temperature and precipitation at each meteorological station and the annual natural runoff volume at Ankang hydrological station were calculated. After selecting the representative stations, we developed the climatic model for calculating the annual natural runoff volume, and analyzed the sensitivity of natural runoff volume to climate change and the effect of climate change on the runoff volume. The results show that the annual natural runoff volume of the Hanjiang River increases with the increase of precipitation but decreases with the increase of temperature, and that the response of the annual natural runoff volume is more sensitive to precipitation changes rather than to temperature changes.

Key words: climate change, runoff volume, impact, upper reaches of the Hanjiang River.