A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.230

Abstract

Abstract:

The response of cryospheric hydrological processes to climate change, and its impacts has become a key issue in global change research. On a global scale, the mass loss of glaciers (i.e., the amount of meltwater from glaciers) has shown an accelerating trend over the past 20 years, ranging from (48±16) to (57.6±13) Gt/(10 a), while significant regional differences exist. At the watershed scale, the response of glacier meltwater to climate change varies among different watersheds, primarily depending on the size of the glaciers within each watershed and the compositional characteristics of glaciers of varying sizes. Although there are still differences in understanding the future trends of glacier meltwater across various glacier regions, particularly regarding the timing of critical inflection points, there is a consensus on the overall pattern of spatial changes in glacier meltwater. The future trend in global glacier meltwater is expected to be controlled by the rate of change in ice sheets and large glaciers at high latitudes. Global warming has led to significant changes in the intra-annual distribution of runoff during the snowmelt period, with a notable advance in the timing of snowmelt in most watersheds by up to 20 days. Additionally, early snowmelt runoff has significantly increased, with peak flow occurring earlier. It is projected that an increase in the rain-to-snow ratio in the future will lead to a reduction in snowpack storage, while simultaneously increasing sublimation, further advancing the timing of snowmelt runoff and reducing its contribution to watershed runoff. Climate change affects permafrost hydrological processes in several ways, including changes in the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, the runoff regulation function of the active layer, and variations in the supra-permafrost water. In terms of the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, enhanced freeze-thaw cycles, the expansion of thermokarst, and the deepening of the active layer directly impact surface runoff generation and flow processes, thereby affecting the intra-annual distribution of surface runoff. Regarding the runoff regulation function of the active layer, changes in the active layer not only influence surface runoff processes but also affect vertical and horizontal subsurface flow within the active layer, as well as the recharge and runoff generation capacity of the supra-permafrost water. The most important aspect is that the freeze-thaw dynamic and depth variation of the active layer play a role in regulating hydrological processes both within the year and over the long term. In terms of supra-permafrost water changes, various studies have shown that permafrost degradation has already impacted subsurface runoff to some extent, with the most significant effect being the direct contribution of permafrost degradation to river flow. In some watersheds, this contribution even reaches a substantial magnitude. The role of cryosphere hydrology at the watershed scale mainly manifests in three aspects: water source conservation, runoff replenishment, and hydrological regulation. Climate change has led to significant changes in the elements of the cryosphere, which in turn have altered the watershed functions of cryosphere hydrology. However, these changes vary greatly across different watersheds.

Key words: Climate change, Cryospheric hydrological process, Glacier, Snow, Permafrost

DING Yong-Jian, ZHANG Shi-Qiang, CHEN Ren-Sheng, QIN Jia, ZHAO Qiu-Dong, LIU Jun-Feng, YANG Yong, HE Xiao-Bo, CHANG Ya-Ping, SHANGGUAN Dong-Hui, HAN Tian-Ding, WU Jin-Kui, LI Xiang-Ying. A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(1): 1-21.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 The mass change rates of glaciers in the 19 global regions classified by the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI)

Fig. 2 Inter-annual and seasonal variations of glacier runoff from the source of the Urumqi River

Fig. 3 Estimated global annual glacier net mass loss under different RCP scenarios

Fig. 4 Spatial variations of global snowmelt runoff[38,40???????? -49]

Fig. 5 Schematic diagram of the hydrological processes in the active layer of permafrost

Fig. 6 Changes in soil moisture at different depths of the active layer of permafrost in years of high and low water levels, and the response process to rainfall (Shule River upper mountainous basin)

Fig. 7 Conceptual diagram of the impact of permafrost degradation on watershed hydrological processes under climate change. (a) Hydrological changes in river systems, lakes, and the permafrost active layer before and after permafrost degradation, (b) water changes in the permafrost active layer and thermokarst lakes under future scenarios, (c) impact of permafrost degradation on the intra-annual variation of runoff

Fig. 8 Differences in runoff process before and after 1985 in the Shule River basin of the Qilian Mountains

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