复合干热事件对小麦产量影响的研究进展与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.041

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 625-640.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.041

复合干热事件对小麦产量影响的研究进展与展望

胡金鹏¹^,²(), 何研⁴, 史培军¹^,²^,³()

¹ 地表过程与水土风沙灾害风险防控全国重点实验室，北京 100875
² 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875
³ 北京师范大学文理学院，珠海 519087
⁴ 中国气象科学研究院气象风险与保险联合开放实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2025-02-27 修回日期:2025-04-22 出版日期:2025-09-30 发布日期:2025-08-21
通讯作者: 史培军，男，教授，spj@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:胡金鹏，男，博士研究生，202131051099@mail.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国北方农牧交错带土壤多营力复合侵蚀变化与风险评估”(42330502);国家自然科学基金项目“中国小麦复合高温干旱灾害风险评估”(42301100)

Research progress and prospects on the impacts of compound hot and dry events on wheat yield

HU Jin-Peng¹^,²(), HE Yan⁴, SHI Pei-Jun¹^,²^,³()

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction (ESPDRR), Beijing 100875, China
² Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
³ College of Arts and Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
⁴ Joint Open Laboratory on Meteorological Risk and Insurance, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2025-02-27 Revised:2025-04-22 Online:2025-09-30 Published:2025-08-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着气候变化的持续影响，复合干热事件的发生频率不断增加，影响了全球粮食产量。小麦作为主要粮食作物，对保障全球粮食安全和经济发展至关重要。通过总结当前全球小麦主产区复合干热事件的时空格局变化，梳理了当前复合干热事件对小麦产量的影响程度,明晰了复合干热事件对小麦产量的影响机理与研究方法。结果表明，1960—2020年全球小麦主产区发生复合干热事件的频率和强度均有所增加，已经对小麦产量形成严重威胁，预计未来会进一步增加和强化。陆气系统与作物生理胁迫的相互作用使得复合干热对小麦的影响变得更加复杂。未来研究亟需构建具有农作物生理意义的复合干热事件危险性指标，利用统计模型和作物生长模型深入探究对复合干热事件的响应机制，进一步研究不同维度、方法和模型的融合，以加强对复合干热事件的适应和风险预估，以期为深入理解复合干热事件对小麦产量的影响提供科学依据，为农业生产的可持续发展提供参考。

关键词: 复合干热事件, 小麦产量, 气候变化, 作物生理响应, 风险预估

Abstract:

With the continuous impact of climate change, the frequency of compound hot and dry events is increasing, which impacts global food production. Wheat, as a major food crop, is crucial for ensuring global food security and economic development. This review summarizes the temporal and spatial patterns of compound hot and dry events in major wheat-producing regions worldwide, assesses their impacts on wheat yield, and clarifies the mechanisms and research methods associated with extreme hot and dry conditions. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of compound hot and dry events in the major wheat-producing regions of the world have increased during the period from 1960 to 2020. Compound hot and dry events have become a serious threat to wheat yields, and are expected to increase and intensify further in the future. The interaction between land-atmosphere systems and crop physiological stress further complicates the impacts of these events on wheat. Future research should focus on developing compound hot and dry indicators with physiological relevance for crops, employing statistical and crop growth models to explore the response mechanisms to compound hot and dry events, and integrating different dimensions, methods, and models to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of compound hot and dry events. This will enhance adaptation strategies and risk assessments for such events, providing a scientific basis for understanding the impact of compound hot and dry conditions on wheat yield and offering guidance for the sustainable development of agricultural production.

Key words: Compound hot and dry event, Wheat yield, Climate change, Crop physiological response, Risk assessment

胡金鹏, 何研, 史培军. 复合干热事件对小麦产量影响的研究进展与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(5): 625-640.

HU Jin-Peng, HE Yan, SHI Pei-Jun. Research progress and prospects on the impacts of compound hot and dry events on wheat yield[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 625-640.

图/表 5

表1 复合干热指数相关构建方法统计

Table 1 Summary of construction methods for the compound hot and dry index

图1 小麦主产区复合干热事件的时空特征

Fig. 1 Spatial and temporal characteristics of compound hot and dry events in major wheat producing regions 注：图中相关性分析所用的温度与降水数据来自欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）发布的ERA5再分析数据集；全球小麦生长季时段数据参考文献[63]。高温积温定义为生长季内日最高气温超过30℃部分的累计温度值，累计降水为同期总降水量。各小麦主产区的特征变化总结自文献[46-62]。本图底图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2016)1667号的标准地图制作，底图边界无修改，下同。

图2 复合干热事件对小麦主产区产量的影响

Fig. 2 Impact of compound hot and dry events on yields in the main wheat producing regions 注：图中资料与结果来自文献[47,55,71-77]。

图3 复合干热对小麦的影响机理（据参考文献[85]修改）

Fig. 3 Mechanism of the impact of compound hot and dry on wheat (modified from Ref. [85])

图4 复合干热事件对小麦影响的综合研究框架

Fig. 4 Framework for integrated research on the impacts of compound hot and dry extreme events on wheat

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复合干热事件对小麦产量影响的研究进展与展望

Research progress and prospects on the impacts of compound hot and dry events on wheat yield

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