The impacts of climate change on hydrologic seasonal shift: taking flood season division and extreme precipitation as examples

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.134

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the influence of climate change the reliable design and safe operation of hydraulic engineering has become a hot issue for decision makers, researchers and the public. Taking the Qingjiang River Basin as the research target, and using fuzzy set analysis method to classify the daily rainfall data generated under different greenhouse emission scenarios (e.g., A2, A1B and B1), the extreme precipitation series were simulated by generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) function. The results show that climate change has changed the precipitation structure, and its seasonal shift directly affects the flood season division. Under the three emission scenarios, the main flood season in the future will be postponed and shortened compared with the baseline period. The extreme precipitation in the future (e.g., 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) is less than the baseline period, and this difference increases with the increase of the return period. The extreme precipitation in the main flood season is notably larger than that in the pre-flood season and post flood season. For extreme precipitation, the differences between periods are remarkably greater than those of emission scenarios.

Key words: Climate change, Flood season division, Fuzzy set, Seasonal shift, Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution

Meng-Jie ZHANG,Jia-Li GUO,Wei LIN,Jing GUO,Zhang-Kang SHU,Ying-Hai LI,Jing-Wen ZHANG. The impacts of climate change on hydrologic seasonal shift: taking flood season division and extreme precipitation as examples[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(2): 158-166.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1 Empirical membership degree and fitted membership degree under different scenarios (a) baseline period, (b) A2 emission scenario,(c) A1B emission scenario, (d) B1 emission scenario

Fig. 2 Main flood season under different scenarios

Table 1 The distribution of annual maximum precipitation in each period of the flood season

情景	时段	前汛期	主汛期	后汛期	主汛期占比/%
基准期	1961—2010年	8	40	2	80
A2	T1	3	30	17	60
	T2	1	37	12	74
	T3	6	26	18	52
A1B	T1	3	28	19	56
	T2	3	28	19	56
	T3	1	30	19	60
B1	T1	3	28	19	56
	T2	3	36	11	72
	T3	1	42	7	84

Fig. 3 Optimized parameters of the distribution function

Fig. 4 Optimal frequency curve for each period of baseline period

Fig. 5 Comparison of extreme precipitation for different scenarios in the T1 period (a) pre-flood season, (b) main flood season, (c) post-flood season

Fig. 6 Comparison of extreme precipitation for different future periods under A2 scenario (a) pre-flood season, (b) main flood season, (c) post-flood season

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