Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 158-166.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.134

Previous Articles     Next Articles

The impacts of climate change on hydrologic seasonal shift: taking flood season division and extreme precipitation as examples

Meng-Jie ZHANG1,Jia-Li GUO1(),Wei LIN1,Jing GUO2,Zhang-Kang SHU1,3,Ying-Hai LI1,Jing-Wen ZHANG1   

  1. 1 College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
    2 Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Power China, Hangzhou 310014, China
    3 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
  • Received:2018-10-08 Revised:2018-11-27 Online:2019-03-30 Published:2019-03-30


Under the influence of climate change the reliable design and safe operation of hydraulic engineering has become a hot issue for decision makers, researchers and the public. Taking the Qingjiang River Basin as the research target, and using fuzzy set analysis method to classify the daily rainfall data generated under different greenhouse emission scenarios (e.g., A2, A1B and B1), the extreme precipitation series were simulated by generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) function. The results show that climate change has changed the precipitation structure, and its seasonal shift directly affects the flood season division. Under the three emission scenarios, the main flood season in the future will be postponed and shortened compared with the baseline period. The extreme precipitation in the future (e.g., 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) is less than the baseline period, and this difference increases with the increase of the return period. The extreme precipitation in the main flood season is notably larger than that in the pre-flood season and post flood season. For extreme precipitation, the differences between periods are remarkably greater than those of emission scenarios.

Key words: Climate change, Flood season division, Fuzzy set, Seasonal shift, Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution

Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail:
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd