Abstract: The Shiyang River Basin (SRB) Comprehensive Restoration Plan is a key strategy for protecting Minqin from desertification. Based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the trends of future climate changes and their impacts on the runoff of the SRB were analyzed. A water resource macroeconomic model was used to investigate the impacts of different runoff change scenarios on the SRB plan. It shows that if the runoff in the SRB reduces 15% in the future, the economic development (GDP) in present mode and in the restoration mode will be 29.8% and 7.2% lower than the normal, respectively. The comprehensive restoration of the SRB could enhance the capacity of resisting climate change risks, and mitigate climate change impacts on the socio-economy.

Key words: Shiyang River basin, river basin governance, climate change, impacts