Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6): 429-439.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.06.007

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of China’s Emission Allowances Under the 2℃ Target

Pan Xunzhang1, 2, Teng Fei2   

  1. 1 Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China; 
    2 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2015-05-13 Revised:2015-08-17 Online:2015-11-30 Published:2015-11-30
  • Contact: Fei teng


Focused on the main allocation schemes in the international community at present, China’s emission allowances during 2011-2050 under the 2℃ target are studied in this paper. The sensitivity of parameter settings are further analyzed by controlling key variables. The results indicate that to follow the RCP2.6 pathway consistent with the 2℃ target, China would receive allowances around 150-440 Gt CO2 until 2050. However, the schemes purely based on equal per capita emission have already been the most unfavorable to China. To preserve reasonable emission rights, China should insist on the full coverage of historical responsibilities in climate negotiations. The choice of global emission pathways will significantly affect China’s allowances. If the global budget is reduced by 40%-50% compared with the 2010 level, the range of China’s CO2 allowances is 151-474 Gt CO2. If the reduction increases to 50%-60%, the range changes to 138-478 Gt CO2. It shows that the floor of China’s fair range will be relied on the global pathway more greatly.

Key words: climate change, emission allowance, parameter sensitivity, historical responsibility

Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail:
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd