Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 38-43.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.006

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Study on the Sensitivity of Wheat Water Requirement Under Future Climate Change

Luo Xinping 1, Xia Jun 2, 1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 
    2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2014-06-12 Revised:2014-09-04 Online:2015-01-30 Published:2015-01-30

Abstract: By using CROPWAT model, the wheat water requirement in 1961-2010 and 2020s (2020-2029) under IPCC RCPs scenarios were simulated. Defining the change rate of wheat water requirement as a sensitive factor, the sensitivity of wheat water requirement in China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were discussed. The results showed that the mean annual wheat water requirement in China was 105.64 billion m3 and the highest value was located in Huang-Huai-Hai regions. Wheat water requirement in most areas of China tends to be sensitive to climate change. The highly and extremely sensitive regions in terms of wheat water requirement will be distributed in North and Northwest China. And the lightly sensitive areas will be distributed in Northeast China and Yungui Plateau, while in the middle and south of China, the wheat water requirement will not be sensitive to climate change. Moreover, the sensitivity spatial distribution of wheat water requirement is different under various RCP emission scenarios, while the lightly and moderately sensitive areas in terms of wheat water requirement under RCP8.5 scenario become larger significantly than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Key words: wheat water requirement, climate change, sensitivity, CROPWAT model

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