Climate Change Research ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (6): 414-420.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.06.004

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Uncertainty Analysis on Cumulative Emission and Emission Trajectory Under the 2℃ Target

Teng Fei1, He Jiankun1, Gao Yun2, Dong Wenjie3   

  1. 1 Low Carbon Energy Lab, Institutute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University
    2 China Meteorological Administration
    3 College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University
  • Received:2013-05-17 Revised:2013-07-24 Online:2013-11-30 Published:2013-11-30
  • Contact: Fei teng

Abstract: The 2℃ target has become a political consensus among global community. The translation from the temperature rise target to international and national carbon budget should be built upon consistent scientific findings. The current studies on Earth system models, mitigation trajectories and allocation schemes still lack necessary consistency to reach political consensus. The decision-making basis for a top-down climate regime is not ready. The most practical way is to further enhance bottom-up national mitigation pledges through ratcheting assessment, with a view to share the mitigation burden in an equitable manner.

Key words: climate change, uncertainty, emission space, climate negotiation

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