Greenhouse gases synergistic mitigation potential and benefits of room air conditioner sector in Hainan province

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.285

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the established demand-emissions-cost model, combined with scenario analysis, this paper presents an assessment of the potential and cost of synergistic GHG mitigation in the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province. The results show that the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province can significantly reduce both direct and indirect emissions and achieve near-zero emissions by promoting energy efficiency improvements while converting HFCs refrigerants, as well as gain relative benefits through electricity saving. In the Kigali energy efficiency scenario and accelerated transformation energy efficiency scenario, the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province will achieve cumulative emission reductions of 50-62 Mt CO₂-eq and 77-94 Mt CO₂-eq from 2021 to 2060, with direct emission reductions accounting for about 30% and 55%, and average emission reduction costs of CNY -219.3 to -219.1/t and CNY -115.6 to -112.8/t, respectively.

Key words: Hainan province, Room air conditioners, Carbon neutral, Synergistic mitigation

JIANG Peng-Nan, DOU Yan-Wei, BAI Fu-Li, LI Yi-Xi, ZHAO Xing-Chen, ZHANG Xu, CHEN Zi-Wei, HU Jian-Xin. Greenhouse gases synergistic mitigation potential and benefits of room air conditioner sector in Hainan province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 496-507.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Research frame

Table 1 Scenarios description

Table 2 Research parameters, sources and related methods

Fig. 2 Room air conditioner stocks historical data (2000-2020) and projections (2021-2060) in Hainan province

Fig. 3 Direct emissions of room air conditioners under three scenario in Hainan province during 2020-2060

Fig. 4 Sub-refrigerant emissions of room air conditioners under three scenarios in Hainan province during 2020-2060

Fig. 5 Electricity consumption (a) and indirect emissions (b) of room air conditioners under baseline and synergistic mitigation scenarios in Hainan province during 2020-2060

Fig. 6 Total emissions of room air conditioners under three scenario in Hainan province during 2020-2060

Fig. 7 Average abatement cost of energy efficiency improvement when converting room air conditioners to HFC-32 or HC-290 in Hainan province in 2020

Fig. 8 Year-to-year average abatement costs under KAE and ATE scenarios during 2021-2060

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