Abstract:

This paper systematically reviews major extreme weather and climate events in China’s regions under the intensified global warming background from 2010 to 2023. It focuses on analyzing the characteristics and socio-economic impacts of these events and further summarizes the latest progress in attribution research on these occurrences. Among the annual top ten significant weather and climate events in China from 2010 to 2023, extreme precipitation and flood events, along with typhoons, accounted for the highest proportion at 27% and 15%, respectively. Extreme heat, drought, cold-related low-temperature and snowfall events, as well as pollution events associated with haze and dust, each accounted for 11%-12%, while severe convective weather and other meteorological events accounted for 7% and 6%, respectively. With the intensification of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, extreme precipitation, and drought events in China have significantly increased. Trend attribution of extreme events focuses on the impact of climate change on their long-term trends. The increase in extreme heat and drought events is mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing, while extreme precipitation, drought, wildfires, and other extreme events are also closely linked to human-induced warming. Human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary drivers of the long-term changes in extreme events in China. Event attribution research focuses on changes in the probability and intensity of extreme events themselves. Studies based on circulation analog methods, atmospheric models, and storyline approaches indicate that human activities have significantly increased the intensity and frequency of extreme heat, drought, wildfire events, and compound hot-dry events, while slightly reducing the probability and intensity of cold events. The impact on precipitation events varies by event type, but most studies suggest that human activities have heightened the risk of extreme precipitation events. Despite significant progress in the attribution of extreme events in recent years, research gaps remain in understanding events like severe typhoons, severe convective weather, and other types of compound extreme events. Additionally, challenges persist due to insufficient observational data and the lag in climate model development. Establishing a real-time detection and attribution system will provide scientific guidance for the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, holding great significance.

Key words: Global warming, Extreme events, Attribution research