Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 573-582.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.090

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The impact of 1.5℃and 2.0℃global warming on wheat production in China

Ru SUN1,Xue HAN1,Jie PAN1,Wei XIONG1,2,Hui JU1   

  1. 1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2018-06-14 Revised:2018-07-24 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30
  • Contact: Xue HAN


In this study, 1.5℃ warming and 2.0℃ warming scenarios were determined by four sets of data from CMIP5 models including IPSL-CM5A-LR (RCP2.6), GFDL-ESM2M (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), NorESM1-M (RCP4.5). Simulations of wheat grain yield were performed using the DSSAT v4.5 crop model. Results show that: (1) The air temperature within the wheat growing season would increase 1.17℃ and 1.81℃ above the pre-industrial levels, respectively, at the global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃. The warming degree of spring wheat areas in China is higher than that of winter wheat areas. Among the spring wheat areas, the Xinjiang Spring Wheat Area has the largest temperature rise, and the Northwest Spring Wheat Area the smallest. Regarding of winter wheat areas, the maximum and the minimum temperature variation are Southwest Winter Wheat Area and Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Area, respectively. (2) Precipitation in China’s wheat growing season increases by 9.1% and 11.3%, respectively, at the global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃, relative to the historical period (1986-2005). The increase of precipitation in spring wheat areas is slightly larger than that of the winter wheat areas. The precipitation in the Xinjiang Spring Wheat Area is lower than that in the historical period. The largest increase of precipitation in spring wheat areas is the Northern Spring Wheat Area. In the winter wheat areas, the Northern and the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Area shows a larger increase of rainfall, while the precipitation of South China Winter Wheat Area and the Southwest Winter Wheat Area increases slightly. (3) With 1.5℃and 2.0℃warming scenarios, wheat production in China is estimated to reduce by 5.2% and 4.6%, respectively, relative to the historical period (1986-2005). The difference between the two warming scenarios is not significant. With global warming, China’s spring wheat yield mainly shows an increase trend, and the winter wheat yield mainly shows a decrease trend. The largest yield decrease occur’s in the South China Winter Wheat Area and Qinghai-Tibet Spring Wheat Area. The largest yield increase occur’s in the Northwest Spring Wheat Area. The ratio of yield reduction area shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing from north to south. The South China Winter Wheat Area has the maximum ratio, while the Northern Winter Wheat Area the minimum ratio.

Key words: 1.5℃and 2.0℃global warming, Wheat in China, Yield, Temperature, Precipitation

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