Abstract:

Basing on the meteorological data from the 64 meteorology stations and the data of the main chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves from 2003 to 2012 in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas, the variations of climatic factors and the main climatic characteristics that affected the chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves of Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas were revealed using the mathematical statistics. On the basis of the above, the changes of the chemical quality were studied under the two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios in future. The results showed as follows. From 2003 to 2012, in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas, the heat factors and light factor increased, however, the trends didn’t show obvious significance, the water factors decreased significantly. At the maturity stage, the diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature increased obviously. During the fast growing stage and the maturity stage, the rainy days (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm) and relative humidity decreased obviously. The light factor decreased during the root elongating stage and the fast growing stage and increased during the maturity stage, however, the trends didn’t show obvious significance. The main chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves had close relationship with meteorological factors and differed for different indexes in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas. The obvious negative correlation was obtained between solar radiation during fast growing stage and the comprehensive evaluation value of chemical composition. The chemical quality of the flue-cured tobacco leaves in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas would be decreasing because of the obvious increase of solar radiation during fast growing stage under the future climate change, especially under the scenario of RCP8.5.

Key words: flue-cured tobacco, climate change, chemical quality, Henan Province